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Wednesday, October 2
 
The right numbers tell a lot about USC, WSU

By Bill Curry
Special to ESPN.com

Statistics, numbers, combinations and permutations have become larger than life in this business. Sport on the field of combat, between the white lines, becomes secondary in the minds of obsessive-compulsives who fashion lifestyles from stacks of numbers that obscure real outcomes.

Some of them are contrived by gambling cultures, which cleverly manipulate P.T. Barnum marks into squandering millions of dollars each Saturday and Sunday. Others are harmless enough, fantasy sports stuff and press release material designed to cater to the addicted fans who faithfully memorize the tawdry details.

Game Plan: No. 20 USC
Offense:
  • A consistent offense combined with your defense could be unbeatable.
  • The offensive line must be stabilized. C Norm Katnik can be the catalyst.
  • The run game (2.9 ypc) and 3rd-down conversions (31%) must be improved immediately.
    Defense:
  • You were dominating last game. Can you do it all year?
  • D-line, you are developing a reputation that can be a great asset.
  • Troy Polamalu and William Buchanon, can the secondary match the D-line?
    Special Teams:
  • Blocked kicks and punts have cost you dearly. No more this year!
  • PK Ryan Killeen, this is where most young kickers lose poise. Keep your head down.
  • P Tom Malone, now is the time to prove you can be consistent.
    Players:
  • Carson Palmer and Polamalu, you can generate performance by force of leadership.
  • Special teams blunders should be corrected by you.
  • WSU is a gritty team. Prepare for a second-half onslaught.
    Coaches:
  • Make certain that the "toughest schedule" is never used as an excuse.
  • Play field position football all day. It is tough to drive on this defense!
  • Make the USC tradition come alive in the minds of these players.
  • The most recent examples are available in today's mail as I analyze the game USC will play Saturday at Washington State . Have you found yourself wondering how the Cougars have done against ranked opponents since 1995? If not, skip to the next paragraph. If you care, here it is: six wins versus 19 losses. The logical question is "Why 1995?" The logical answer is that WSU must have been considerably worse prior to that year. Some intern in Pullman deduced that juicy morsel for us, hoping we wouldn't ask the obvious.

    Fascinated yet? There is more. Did you know that in 109 games over the last ten seasons there have been only 110 runs of 20 or more yards against Washington State? Wow. Makes one wonder about the ten years prior to that, or maybe even the ten years prior to that.

    Southern Cal's notes and stats look normal enough, unless you wish to know percentages on legitimately important numbers like third-down and fourth-down conversions. What one gets instead is 20-of-63 on offensive third-down conversion, requiring the use of your own calculator. Maybe the USC statisticians hope we won't do the math. I did, and the 31.7 percent figure is extremely poor for a veteran offense. By the way, there was a prominent note highlighting the percentage on third-down defense, which is a brilliant 13.5 percent (7-of-52 converted). Interesting disparity in reporting there.

    Why do I bring this up in a game plan? I confess, I needed a tirade on all the ridiculous manipulation of numbers, and this was a good shot to do that. More importantly, this game is one in which numbers really are significant.

    Statistical analysis of football teams is hardly productive until they have played three or four games. At the Division I-A level, the quality of the stats is in direct proportion to the strength of schedule. Simply stated, numbers mean something when a team has played "somebody". Washington State has played "somebody" on two occasions (Ohio State, California) and USC has played "somebody" every week this season (Auburn, Colorado, Kansas State, Oregon State).

    Washington State's bad habits are exposed by the following: 73 yards per game in penalties (too many), offensive third-down conversion of 33.9 percent (too few), a turnover margin of plus-1 (not enough), and a red zone defense that allows opponent scores 80 percent of the time (too often). Combine those real numbers with the fact that the offense scored only seven points against Ohio State, and Mike Price has plenty to work on this week.

    The main reasons the Cougars are 4-1 are as follows: passing yards per attempt (8.0), passing yards per completion (12.6), 430 yards per game in total offense, 35 points per game, and Jason Gesser's gutsy 62.2 percent completion rate, 1,282 yards and 11 touchdowns with only three interceptions. Combine all that with a defense that is fighting through a bunch of injured linebackers yet still holding opponents to a third-down conversion rate of 31.2 percent and you have a chance against anybody.

    Game Plan: No. 17 Washington State
    Offense:
  • O-line, you will have your hands full. Keep them off Gesser.
  • Mike Bush, Jerome Riley, and Devard Darling, you must make big catches again and again..
  • Some trickery will be required to keep drives alive.
    Defense:
  • You cannot "no-show" int the first half like you did last week. Be ready!
  • Keep the USC running game in check. Make Palmer throw on 3rd-and-long.
  • You played well in the red zone late last week. Resolve to do that from the beginning.
    Special Teams:
  • USC is vulnerable! Remember Coach Dunn's kick blocking instructions.
  • Marcus Trufant and punt return team, you lead the Pac-10. Establish field position.
  • Devard Darling, look the ball in and squeeze it on kickoff returns.
    Players:
  • You must improve the penalties. 73 yards per game is too much.
  • You must come together as a team and cover for the injured LB position for the time being.
  • You have beaten these guys in L.A. the last two times, why not here?
    Coaches:
  • Work hard on net punting and field goal accuracy.
  • Red zone defense must improve now.
  • Some exotic plays or trickery will be required to win this one!
  • USC's weaknesses are most pronounced on offense and in the kicking game. Third-down conversion is meager 31.7 percent, 110 yards have been lost (39 on sacks) and the mean yardage per rushing play (2.9) and passing play (6.4) are unacceptable, as are 11.2 yards per completion and just five passing touchdowns in four games. Field goals and PATs have been missed, blocked and returned for scores. The veteran placekicker has been replaced and a new punter is struggling for consistency. USC does not publish net punting, so the 40.7 yards per punt listed in their stats does not mean much.

    Offensive potential is good if the line can be solidified. Carson Palmer has become the USC career leader in total offense and is on pace to break other records with a little help from his friends. He is also becoming a powerful, mature leader, much-respected by his team.

    The Trojan defense has been excellent and should be expected to dominate this game. "Wild Bunch II", presumably fashioned after "Wild Bunch I" circa 1969, has played lights-out. In the second half of three games they relinquished 35 yards to Auburn, seven to Colorado and 33 to Oregon State, which managed just 131 total yards in the 22-0 shutout last week. Dennis Erickson's teams have been shutout only twice in his entire career in both college and the NFL, and the Beavers were the fourth consecutive ranked opponent for USC. The Trojans have the nation's toughest schedule.

    This defense leads the nation in total defense (205 yards per game), passing defense (101 yards per game), and is sixth in scoring defense (11.8 points per game). It has produced 12 takeaways, allowing for a plus-5 turnover margin. Red zone scoring by opponents is only 58 percent, a winning number, and third-down defense is the aforementioned 13.5 percent.

    Yards per rush allowed is just 2.9, only one touchdown pass has been given up, and the team has outscored opponents in the fourth quarter by a margin of 44-11. These are the kinds of numbers that intimidate when they are generated against quality competition.

    Finally, there is a Trojan punt returner with only one opportunity this year who legged it out for 23 yards. He should definitely get another chance. His name? Forrest Mozart. Really. If he maintains his average in future performances, how long can it be before the USC band is blaring the theme from "Amadeus" each time he takes the field?

    The hidden-yardage advantage should be Southern Cal's unless the special teams revert to their porous habits in kick and punt protection. One such mistake could offset all the other assets.

    The game within the game here will be something called "tournament toughness." USC has run the gauntlet of the nation's most difficult schedule, and is beginning to play with some of the old Trojan swagger.

    Washington State has played two tough games. The Cougars were manhandled by Ohio State and nearly run out of the stadium in the first half at California. Their response in the second half at Berkeley augurs well for this game, but the Trojans have been playing well week after grueling week.

    ESPN College Football analyst Bill Curry coached for 17 years in the college ranks. His Gameplans for marquee matchups will appear each week during the college football season.





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