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Thursday, November 21
 
Tressel trying to reverse recent history

By Bill Curry
Special to ESPN.com

"We'll make Buckeye fans proud in Ann Arbor!" Jim Tressel's words reverberated through the football world at his hiring, and when he delivered on his bold promise with a 26-20 win at Michigan last November he assured himself a footnote in the book of Buckeye legends.

Now that he is the first Ohio State coach to produce twelve consecutive wins he has guaranteed a page. To move to chapter status he will be required to answer the question, "Yeah, but can he make us proud in Columbus?"

If Jim gets by this one with Michigan, he'll hear the next question. "Yeah, but can he make us proud in Tempe?" If that one is answered in the affirmative, the book contract will be in the mail.

Game Plan: No. 9 Michigan
Offense:
  • Isolate Fox and Doss 1-on-1 early. Shake their man-coverage confidence.
  • Having established the pass, you must run the football effectively.
  • John Navarre, you must forget about public opinion and crowd noise.
    Defense:
  • This calls for a Jim Herrmann special. Shut them down!
  • Shantee Orr, stay in that backfield. Lost-yardage plays!
  • Your 36 sacks lead the Big 10. Add about six here.
    Special Teams:
  • Adam Finley, do both jobs well (P and K) and your legend begins!
  • Jeremy LeSueur, add to your school-record kickoff returns. Field position!
  • Julius Curry, punt returns will be more important than ever.
    Players:
  • Co-captain Victor Hobson, you are the glue. Keep it close-knit.
  • Everyone must encourage Navarre all day.
  • Everyone must encourage Finley all day.
    Coaches:
  • Lloyd Carr, you are 11-2 against Top-10 teams. You know what to do.
  • Your record against opponents you lost to the previous year is better: 12-2!
  • The placekickers need successful practice under pressure this week.
  • Every good Wolverine fan can remind us that Michigan holds the edge in the overall series, 56-36-2. In Columbus, Michigan leads 27-19-2. And in a current streak, the Wolverines dominate 10-3-1. History and streaks mean something in these larger-than-life matchups because the players and coaches memorize the details from the time they learn to read the sports pages. If human beings are creatures of habit, athletes are human beings more inclined to habit.

    The whole idea in getting ready to compete at the highest level involves creating, then reinforcing, good habits. Unfortunately, the athlete's unconscious mind absorbs negative images, trends, and ideas with the same accuracy as the good ones if they are powerfully reinforced. This is one price we pay for the barrage of data pounded into our minds on a daily basis.

    Athletes and coaches read the sports pages as devoutly as religious zealots read their sacred writs, and the impact on performance can be startling. This is the reason for long streaks, improbable outcomes, and unique performances by unsung role players. What the mind can conceive, it really can achieve.

    What makes these games so fascinating is the correlation of hard data regarding the teams' performances with the habits, trends, atmosphere and mindsets of the participants.

    There has been disappointment from the media this week because there are no "colorful comments" from the teams. Of all the absurd suggestions that are generally accepted by people who never played, the one surrounding pregame comments is the most ridiculous. Revenge, bulletin board clippings and the like have no impact on performance once the game begins. It can affect preparation in the offseason, but not the actual game.

    I played for the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III, when Joe Namath's guarantee of victory for his Jets was to have guaranteed their demise. After all, we were considered unbeatable that year. His words were thought to make us more unbeatable. We not only lost the game, but conferred lifetime legendary status on my good friend Joe.

    The comments that do matter in these situations are the ones made by coaches and teammates about each other. The closest teams iron out problems behind closed doors, and generally perform better under intense scrutiny. Both the Wolverines and Buckeyes have done an admirable job in this area.

    When freshman sensation Maurice Clarett began to talk about testing the NFL policy prohibiting freshman from entering the draft, Tressel low-keyed the entire thing. Clarett had the misfortune of being injured the next outing, and the team continued to win without him. He has learned a valuable lesson and a potentially divisive situation was defused.

    In this rivalry, history favors the team with less to lose. Four times since 1993 Ohio State has played Michigan with at least a chance to play for the national championship. The Buckeyes lost all four. Last year it was Michigan's turn to be disappointed as OSU knocked them out of BCS contention with the win at the Big House.

    From 1970-75 Bo Schembechler was 57-0-2 entering the Ohio State game. His record against Woody Hayes in those years? Just 1-4-1. He had more to lose.

    In assessing home field advantage it is important to note that each administration and coaching staff involved in these highly-charged contests has responsibility for crowd control. It is a unique issue at each venue, and must be effectively addressed.

    Michigan coach Lloyd Carr has essentially issued a challenge in this regard by confessing that he has felt physically threatened at times in Ohio Stadium. I believe him, having felt the same kind of threat among highly-emotional, inebriated fans at other venues. Most coaches and players have learned to handle the taunts and screaming faces. We do not do very well with rocks, bricks and bottles that hit us in the head.

    One of Michigan's major challenges will be to keep the crowd reasonably quiet during the game. Strategy to accomplish that is simple, but not easy. The offense must keep the chains moving, and the defense must deny the home team any "explosives", or big plays.

    The Wolverines have been superb on third down, with a 46 percent conversion rate, while the Ohio State defense has a reasonable stop rate of 34 percent. It is here that Michigan could take the upper hand early.

    Game Plan: No. 2 Ohio State
    Offense:
  • Unleash Jenkins and Gamble on them early. Loosen, then run the ball.
  • Clarett must have contact during the week, otherwise he fumbles.
  • No five-yard penalties this week!
    Defense:
  • Illinois converted 8-of-19 on third down last week. Get off the field!
  • Matt Wilhelm, lead the tacklers again. Give them nothing on the ground.
  • Do not allow Navarre to get untracked like last year. He ate you up.
    Special Teams:
  • Mike Nugent, you are a weapon. Return to consistency.
  • Andy Groom, your field-position work will be crucial.
  • Michigan blocked a punt last year. Perfect protection!
    Players:
  • Chris Gamble, you were shocked at the intensity last year. Share with the youngsters!
  • Craig Krenzel, use your calm and maturity to focus the young players.
  • Freshmen, you have played 12 games. You're no longer inexperienced.
    Coaches:
  • You have passed every test with flying colors-this is the next one.
  • Detail the special teams mechanics. No bad snaps or blocked kicks.
  • Keep the great record on penalties. Emotions in check!
  • The big play category will be more difficult. Quarterback Craig Krenzel and receivers Chris Gamble and Michael Jenkins have been the key to OSU's survival down the stretch. Big play after big play has assured victory, and at the most pressurized times. Gamble has extraordinary endurance, having played 128 plays against Illinois on offense, defense, and special teams!

    Ohio State has 10 true freshmen from its great recruiting class in its two-deep, which may explain why it has been so much more effective at home than on the road this season. Eighteen year olds do much better in familiar surroundings, and these kids actually play.

    The average score of the Buckeyes' seven home wins is 37.6-11.3. Away from Columbus, the result averages 20.4-14.2. Even considering the lesser opponents on the home schedule this represents a huge differential, especially in offensive performance.

    Surprisingly, Michigan's squad includes fifteen Ohio natives, while Ohio State has only one Michigan native. This is a marked advantage for Michigan, largely because of the athletes' preparing better to go home to play.

    It is significant that the lone Michigan native on the Buckeye roster is Krenzel, who beat the Wolverines last year in his first career start, and whose four "prayer" passes pulled out the Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Illinois games. The molecular genetics major has calmly led his team to its undefeated record with a pass efficiency rating of 148.2, a 61.2 percent completion percentage and 12 TD passes to only 5 interceptions.

    The game within the game this week involves Krenzel and his Michigan counterpart, John Navarre, who enter the game with entirely different auras. For the reasons enumerated above, Krenzel is 13-1 as the starter and enjoys the complete confidence of teammates and fans.

    Navarre has been booed by the home fans and threw four interceptions in the Ohio State game last year. That is a very difficult scenario in which to lead a team. His teammates have not been openly critical, but neither have they been vocally supportive recently.

    Hidden yardage this week favors the Buckeyes as well. In efficiency study (yards per attempt), they lead Michigan in every offensive and defensive stat: rushing yards per carry, 4.4 to 4.0 and rushing yards allowed per carry, 2.6 to 3.3; passing yards per attempt, 8.9 to 6.4 and passing yards allowed per attempt, 6.3 to 6.4.

    If you find all these numbers confusing, simply envision OSU gaining ground little by little, from a half-yard to two yards per play. Multiply that by roughly 150 plays, and you can see what a difference the small per-play disparity creates.

    In the not-so-hidden category, Michigan's placekicking woes are a matter of record. Adam Finley is listed as the starter at punter and kicker, and he or one of the other kickers will simply have perform better than they have all year. Remember, that is the sort of thing that happens in big rivalries!

    Mike Nugent is the formidable Ohio State kicker who had hit 23 in a row before missing two last week and is now 24-of-26 on the season. Also in the not-so-hidden realm is the fact that Michigan has a plus-8 to plus-2 advantage in turnover margin. The game will almost certainly be determined in the kicking and turnover departments.

    ESPN college football analyst Bill Curry coached for 17 years in the college ranks. His Game Plans for marquee matchups appear each week during the college football season.





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