CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- A new age is dawning in the NFC South. The only problem is this new age is more confusing than the NFC South of past years.
Last week, the Carolina Panthers ended three years of futility by beating Michael Vick and the Atlanta Falcons, something that they had never done before. On Sunday, the Bucs, five-time losers to the Panthers over the past three years, dominated the Panthers in a 20-10 victory. All of a sudden, the NFC South is as baffling as the Bucs' Cover 2 defense must have looked to Jake Delhomme on Sunday.
Everyone must accept this division won't be determined until New Year's Day -- the final Sunday of the regular season -- when the Falcons host the Panthers and the Bucs host New Orleans. The Bucs and Panthers are 9-4 and a Falcons win over the Saints on Monday night will pull them to within one game of the lead.
"Destiny is in our hands," Bucs quarterback Chris Simms said after climbing to the top of the division via Sunday's win. "We realized that. We will just continue to play. We got two big ones at the end of the year against division teams. We are going to keep plugging away and keep doing what we are doing and not let any outside influences creep into our game."
Handicapping this division after 14 weeks is impossible. Last week against the Falcons, the Panthers had the look of a champion. Their defense showed remarkable coverage ability at the cornerback position that enabled John Fox to float eight defenders near the line of scrimmage to finally stop Vick. On Sunday, they were as flat as a flat-screen television.
Delhomme hit Steve Smith with a 23-yard pass to open the game. DeShaun Foster came out running hard, gaining 28 yards on three consecutive carries. Then, suddenly, the Panthers' offense blew a tire. Bucs defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin adjusted his defense to confuse Delhomme, making sure he couldn't guess when they were in Cover 2 or in an eight-man front.
After a first drive that ended with a 42-yard John Kasay missed field-goal attempt, the Panthers averaged less than 4.4 yards a play, gaining 221 yards on their next 51 plays. Foster gained 16 yards on his next 11 carries and banged up his shoulder. Delhomme converted only 2-of-11 third downs.
"The plan going into this game was really getting back to the Cover 2, the fundamentals of the Cover 2," Bucs cornerback Ronde Barber said. "We needed to get a lot of pressure up front and make sure tackles in the running game. We also wanted to limit Steve Smith's opportunities for one-on-one matchups."
One of the reasons the Bucs have climbed back into the playoff race is that they have gone back to basics -- both on offense and defense. Cover 2 is the staple of the Bucs defense. Kiffin has mastered that two-deep zone look for a decade with Tampa Bay, particularly his ability to find a middle linebacker who can drop into coverage in the middle zone of the field.
Perhaps the worst thing the Panthers did five weeks ago was embarrass the Bucs 34-14 in Tampa. Jon Gruden regrouped the team, and it has run off four wins in its last five games. During that time, Simms has grown as an offensive leader at quarterback. His numbers weren't great (20-of-27 completions for 138 yards), but the Bucs basically ran a two-tight end, two-back scheme in which they pound the ball.
"We did a lot of two tight-end, two-back [formations] in that game [the loss in Week 9], but the kind of game it became when we got down early forced us to start spreading out and passing the ball a little more," Simms said. "We've been doing a heavy dose [of two tight ends] all year long. It's not a surprise. We've been lining up in formation and saying, 'Here we come, just stop us.' "
But this time around, the Panthers struggled to stop the Bucs. Gruden tried a few trick formations in which players would shift alignments, but his strategy for most of the game was simple: either pound Carnell "Cadillac" Williams with a power run on first down or try a quick hitch to the outside to one of his receivers. The goal was to set up third-and-2 or third-and-3.
The Bucs converted 10-of-17 third downs, which enabled them to control the line of scrimmage and win time of possession 32:04 to 27:56.
"We were just throwing a 6-yard hitch route out there, and we threw a little combination where we would run a 4- or 5-yard out," Simms said. "It's nothing they haven't seen before. It's just a good way to get three or four yards and put your offense in second-and-6 and second-and-7 situations."
Of Tampa Bay's 17 third-down chances, seven were between 1 and 3 yards.
"I can't tell you how big that was," Gruden said of the third-down conversions. "I believe we had 10 third-down conversions. They stopped us on a couple of situations, but we converted some long-yardage third downs [Simms converted a third-and-10 and a third-and-11], some short-yardage third downs and we did it repeatedly in a game that we needed."
This game was won on first and third downs. Coaches usually give winning grades to first-down plays that are four yards or longer. After the Panthers' first offensive series, the Panthers "lost" on 10 of the next 12 first-down plays. That set up third-and-14s, third-and-17s and a third-and-18.
"We weren't very effective," Fox said. "We ran it some on third down and we threw it some on third down. We weren't as effective as we need to be in a tough game."
Two third-down plays were disastrous for the Panthers. On a third-and-8 in the second quarter, Delhomme sent Smith into the middle of the field on an intermediate pass. Delhomme's pass was a little high, and Smith was covered by linebacker Ryan Nece. Safety Will Allen delivered a devastating hit with his left shoulder that shook up Smith and sent him to the bench for a few minutes.
But the most disastrous clearly came in the fourth quarter. After driving to the Bucs' 12-yard line, the Panthers watched a comeback fall apart when Barber read Delhomme's eyes on a third-and-4 and intercepted a pass intended for Ricky Proehl. The Bucs led 13-3, and Simms responded by driving the Bucs 58 yards to a Williams touchdown and a 20-3 lead.
For Barber, that interception and a third-down sack of Delhomme on the next series made history -- he became the first cornerback in NFL history to record 20 interceptions and 20 sacks.
"It was a Z-option," Barber said of the interception. "The tight end crosses in front of me, and Ricky Proehl had an option to go in or out. He kind of sat down. To tell you the truth, I'm kind of surprised that Jake threw the ball. It was right on the top of my hands, and I found a way to get my hands around it, and it stayed in the air, and I caught it. It ended up being a game-saving play for us, because Chris and Cadillac went down and made it 20-3 on that drive. We ate up a bunch of the clock. Those are the type of things good teams do."
The Bucs are clearly a good team, and they were very good against the Panthers. With Simms' flawless execution in the conservative two-tight end offense, the Bucs averaged almost 5 yards a play on first down. Of their 17 third-down chances, seven were between 1 and 3 yards.
Gruden completed a good shot at the Panthers when asked about ending the five-game losing streak to Carolina.
"We lost some slugfests; we lost five in a row, but now they've got a one-game losing streak, and you can ask them about the streak," Gruden said.
But remember, this is the NFC South, so it's hard to forecast what this victory means. The Bucs travel to New England next week for what will be a tough, cold, road test. The Panthers go to Baton Rouge to play a Saints team that beat them in Charlotte in Week 1.
"You wipe the slate clean and get ready for the next one because it isn't getting any easier," Panthers safety Mike Minter said.
Last week, it was the Panthers' division. This week, it belongs to the Bucs. This NFC South race won't be decided until the dawning of 2006.
John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.