John Clayton, ESPN Senior Writer 17y

Defenses gaining upper hand late in games

NFL

Keith Rowan probably is still wondering why he lost his ability to call plays for Dennis Green.

In two games, the pregame script of the Cardinals' recently deposed offensive coordinator worked perfectly with rookie quarterback Matt Leinart. Leinart had two touchdown drives in the first quarter of games against the Chiefs and Bears. But how Rowan called plays with the lead led to his quick demise.

Rowan isn't alone.

Monday night's incredible game between the Cardinals and Bears was another illustration of how the improved athletic ability of defenses has taken away one of the NFL's simplest strategies -- pounding the ball with the lead. Rowan kept calling inside runs by Edgerrin James to wear down the Bears.

Rowan figured the Bears, like most teams that use the Cover 2 defense, were light along the defensive line and would eventually wear down. The Cardinals gave James a $30 million contract for games like this. Plus, the Cardinals have the league's biggest offensive line.

Rowan's no-brainer turned into a no-gainer. James looked like he was running into a brick wall every time he touched the ball. He had 36 carries for 55 yards. To get 100 yards the way the Bears were playing, he might have needed close to 70 carries.

"Edge is a great back, and he tried to run the ball to the outside, but that's not going to work because we are so fast on defense," Bears middle linebacker Brian Urlacher said.

It was somewhere in the middle of James' 36-carry game when Urlacher gave hysterical advice to James. "You're going to kill your average," Urlacher said.

Defenses have been drafting for speed for the past several years, and their success in doing that is causing a major change in fourth-quarter strategies with the lead. The downhill, fourth-quarter running style of the Steelers just won't work against good defenses. Sure, a power running team can wear down the Houston Texans or New York Jets. But more than half the league's defenses are good enough to force offenses to be more creative with the lead.

Look what's happened to Marty Ball in San Diego. In Week 1, Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer kept running LaDainian Tomlinson to the state of boredom. The Raiders' defense held up, turning the contest into a field-position game. Schottenheimer went punt-for-punt with the Raiders until the Chargers finally put the game away in the fourth quarter with a few big passes from Philip Rivers.

The same strategy didn't work against a better Ravens team in Week 4. The Ravens' defense stuffed the run while the Chargers led 13-7. Schottenheimer called 41 running plays, but that just allowed the Ravens to stay in the game. The Ravens and Chargers were simply in a game of field position. Then a botched punt gave the Ravens a safety.
Steve McNair got the ball back and drove the Ravens to a game-winning touchdown.

To beat good defenses in 2006, teams have to use more than just Marty Ball, which might be one of the reasons the Chargers are opening up their offense and letting Rivers wing it with the lead.

Having to take that approach could cause headaches for plenty of offensive coordinators and head coaches trying to protect the lead.

"Defenses are too good nowadays to just keep pounding the ball with the lead," Panthers defensive end Mike Rucker said. "And you definitely can't do it against defenses that are good at defensive tackle. Look at our defense. We are so gap-sound at that, it's difficult to run the ball up the middle. If defenses stay gap-sound, you're not going to be able to run. And defenses are so fast that it's hard to get outside for gains."

It also should be noted that, more and more, teams rotate their defensive linemen enough that they can stay fresh in the fourth quarter.

To get around these problems, offenses have to be more balanced. The object will be more to move the first-down chains instead of just eating up time on the clock. Another problem for offenses is the run blitz. Because new contact rules make it tougher for cornerbacks to hold coverage, defenses are run blitzing more on first and second downs early in the game.

The strategy in the fourth quarter will be to intensify those run blitzes. That's what the Bears did against the Cardinals. Trailing, Bears coach Lovie Smith abandoned his Cover 2 concepts and went to more man coverages, freeing up a defender to help on the run. The Bears aren't a blitzing team. They are so good they don't need to blitz. But against the Cards, the Bears used about every blitz in their playbook, mostly ones that allowed Urlacher to roam free to stuff the run.

This isn't to say attrition won't affect a good defense's ability to stop the run when an opponent has a lead. Injuries take their toll. The Lions, for example, will be more vulnerable to the run during defensive tackle Shaun Rogers' four-game suspension, along with their mounting injury list. The Lions are giving up 26.2 points per game (but only 94.3 yards per game on the ground). With Rogers in the lineup in a close game, it's better to mix the run and pass rather than just pound it.

Thus, conventional wisdom won't work this year. Fourth-quarter conservatism isn't going to work against defensive units with good defensive tackles and with speed at linebacker and in the secondary. Pounding the ball against the Ravens, Vikings, Panthers, Chargers, Steelers and other formidable fronts is like pounding one's head against the wall.

If you don't believe the trend is against pounding the ball in the fourth quarter, look at the stats. The top two fourth-quarter backs are Jerious Norwood of the Falcons and Michael Turner of the Chargers, backup runners who bloated their stats in garbage time against so-so defenses.

Rowan's insistence on running James in the fourth quarter with the lead cost him his job. He won't be the only offensive coach to suffer because of how tough it is to run in the fourth quarter.

John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.

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