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Wackiness will likely continue into playoffs

Beginning Tuesday, generous return policies give most of us the chance to bring back sweaters that have sleeves completely covering our hands and pants you wouldn't wear even if you were an Oregon football player.

The post-Christmas rush coincides with the scramble to the NFL playoffs. It's been a fascinating year. Steve McNair turned out to be the difference maker that put the Ravens atop the AFC North, Chargers QB Philip Rivers was as good as advertised, and the Saints made one of the best moves in years in signing Drew Brees despite some questionable medical opinions on his right shoulder.

Still, there is something strange about this season -- in a positive way. It's been unpredictable. The Seahawks dodged the Super Bowl loser jinx, which doomed teams since 2000 with losing seasons. But at 8-6, they still haven't clinched a playoff spot. The NFC as a conference completely flopped. As the playoffs approach, expect the unexpected.

You get the sense that this might be the year some of the NFL's tried and true axioms might not survive. Here are a few that might be at risk.

• The last Super Bowl champion that didn't have a top-10 defense in fewest points allowed was the 1983 Raiders. If the NFL ever had a year in which this amazingly realistic streak could fall, this is it.

Coaches have said for years that defense wins championships. They've been right. Whether it's been the Steel Curtain or the 1985 Bears or the Ray Lewis-led Ravens, defenses have a special place in Super Bowl history. In baseball, great pitchers often stop great hitters, but the defensive theory is an even better fit for football. Defenses keep their quarterbacks in the game until the end, and a good quarterback can orchestrate a game-winning drive in the final minutes.

A case can be made for a non-top-10 defense winning the Super Bowl this season. Applying that stat would eliminate every NFC team except the Bears. Nine of the top-10 scoring defenses are in the AFC. The Bears (14.9 points allowed per game) rank third behind the Ravens (13.4) and Patriots (13.9). There are many problems with the top-10 criterion, and those problems have been brewing for years.

In this day and age, several non-playoff teams end up in the top 10. The Ravens, Patriots and Chargers are the AFC division leaders in the top 10 in fewest points allowed. Jacksonville, Denver and Kansas City are in the top 10, but those teams can only make the playoffs as wild cards, and it's hard to think they will win three road games and go to the Super Bowl. The Miami Dolphins (fifth with 17.4 points allowed), Bills (seventh at 18.7) and Steelers (ninth at 19.7) are the other teams in the top 10.

To use the top-10 defense evaluator narrows the Super Bowl champion field to four real possibilities: Baltimore, New England, Chicago and San Diego. Maybe that's the way it's going to work out, but this year, anything seems possible. I consider this season the biggest challenge to that 23-year tradition.

Everyone figures an offensive team might beat the odds and win the Super Bowl one of these years. Maybe Peyton Manning can sneak into a Super Bowl and win with a defense that can't stop the run. Bill Parcells has a more mobile Pro Bowl quarterback in Tony Romo, but can the Cowboys be counted out because of a defense allowing 20.8 points a game, 17th in the league?

So much of the playoffs will be determined by how the games will be officiated. For the past three years, the league has tried to help offenses by calling more illegal contact and interference penalties. If they call the games tight in the playoffs, good offensive teams such as the Colts, Chargers and Saints have a better chance of winning a Super Bowl. If officials allow more physical contact, a defensive team will probably win.

Officials have done an exceptional job of protecting the quarterback this season by flagging any late hit to the head or low hit once the ball is released. Defensive players have complained all season, but more quarterbacks are standing, so the strategy worked. If those officiating standards continue during the playoffs, offensive teams have even more of a chance to compensate for a defense not ranked in the top 10.

Tackling around the NFL is shaky at best. Training camps are now more like extended minicamps. Coaches limit tackling drills for fear of losing players to injury. Throw in the perfect storm of more mobile quarterbacks with defenders having to think before they tackle, and you have the potential for more big offensive plays that could allow a non-top-10 defense to win a Super Bowl.

No team is off-the-charts dominating this year. The Chargers have fewer holes than any other team, but they also have a quarterback in Rivers who has never been to a playoff game.

Here are some of the other staples of playoffs past that could be taken back to the store for returns.

• Home field means everything. Maybe not this year. The Saints may get the No. 2 seed, but they are 4-3 at home. The Patriots have lost three home games. The Bears are 6-1 at home, but can they win if Rex Grossman opens the playoffs with a bad game? The Cowboys had a crucial home game against the Saints in Week 14 and lost by 25 points. The Chargers and Colts are the league's only teams with unbeaten records at home.

• An inexperienced quarterback can't win a Super Bowl. Grossman, Rivers, Romo and Brees are just a few of the quarterbacks who either haven't won a playoff game or participated in a playoff game. Don't count them out in big games. Again, this is a season in which anything can happen.

Terrell Owens is the one player who can make a good team great. Send that thought back to the return desk. The Cowboys are a more dangerous offense with Owens, but their top two receiving threats are Terry Glenn and Jason Witten. Owens draws a lot of single coverage. He drops a lot of passes. As much as everyone talks about how Owens carried the Eagles to the Super Bowl, he missed two of the Eagles' playoff games with a broken leg.

• Owens will tear apart the Cowboys' locker room. He didn't. Thanks to Parcells' distant approach to Owens, players pretty much ignore his antics. He can rant and rave on the sidelines as much as he wants. Parcells ignores him. Players turn a deaf ear. Last week, Eagles players talked about how the locker room was destroyed because of Owens. Parcells and the leadership within the Cowboys didn't allow that to happen this season.

John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.