John Clayton, ESPN Senior Writer 16y

Jaguars looking to validate strong start

New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins

Week 7 shouldn't be a time of panic, but it is. Even though it's relatively early in the season, playoff hopes could fade because of the results of this weekend's games.

The loser of the Bears-Eagles game is in trouble. The loser of the Bengals-Jets game can start planning for next season. In the Superdome, the Falcons and Saints will be battling for survival. The "Haves" are separating themselves from the "Have-nots."

For the Jaguars and Jack Del Rio, Monday night's game against the Colts is the defining moment of their season. A win ties them for the AFC South lead. A loss means the Colts will likely run away with the division again.

NFL schedule makers gave the Jaguars hope by slating three divisional home games in the first seven weeks and putting the Colts on the road for their first three divisional games. In what has become pro football's best division, that's a great advantage for the Jaguars. Playoff teams should win their divisional home games.

For survival's sake, the Jags needed a great start. In Week 1, the Titans overpowered them in Jacksonville. It probably didn't help that Del Rio gave quarterback David Garrard the starting job only 10 days before that game after cutting Byron Leftwich. But the Jaguars bounced back with four straight wins.

The Colts won tough AFC South road games in Nashville and Houston and sit at 5-0. For the Jags, winning this game is everything. A loss will have the Colts looking in the rearview mirror at the Jaguars and everyone else in the division.

Looking back, Del Rio wins kudos for dumping Leftwich and starting Garrard. Coaches improved Garrard's throwing mechanics. They removed a hop from his footwork and made him a more accurate quarterback. He's completing 66.2 percent of his passes and hasn't thrown an interception. He's done a remarkable job of converting third downs and moving the offense down the field.

But good isn't good enough going against Peyton Manning. With his uncanny no-huddle style, Manning controls possessions and controls the clock. And he gets touchdown drives.

Manning's consistency is amazing. He's averaging 10 offensive possessions a game and is scoring 3.6 touchdowns and 2.2 field goals a game, translating to 32.8 points a game. He's converting 55.6 percent of his third downs, and he's had only five three-and-outs.

To stay with Manning, Garrard can't settle for field goal drives. He's averaging two touchdowns and 1.6 field goals per game. Del Rio presented the model for beating the Colts last year by pounding them with a running game and keeping Manning on the sidelines. That formula cost the Colts four road losses last year.

Even if the Jaguars win, it's going to be hard to stay with the Colts all season, but a loss makes Jacksonville settle for second best in the league's best division.

1. Tampa Bay at Detroit: As the 2006 season concluded, the Bucs and Lions were battling for position in the top 10 of the draft. Less than a year later, both teams are in the playoff hunt. This is the only Sunday game in which two teams with winning records face each other. Despite that, it's a game that seems to be slipping under the radar. There is very little national buzz on what should be an intriguing game.

The Lions play with better energy at home as opposed to road games, in which their defense has surrendered as many as 56 points. Quarterback Jon Kitna can work his indoor magic and get his usual 300 yards.

There is also an emotional element to this game. Holdover Bucs defenders from a couple years ago love their former defensive line coach, Rod Marinelli, who is trying to get the Lions back to respectability.
Without a running game, Bucs quarterback Jeff Garcia, who was briefly a Lion, has to manage a safe, mistake-free game. It's not out of the question for both teams to think playoffs win or lose.

2. Tennessee at Houston: The Titans might not know until game day whether QB Vince Young (quad) will be able to play, but it would sure help the Texans' ownership if he didn't. Matt Schaub is winning over Texans fans with his accuracy and field leadership, but he will never be more popular than Young, the former Texas Longhorn.
Many Texans fans still resent the Texans' front office for not drafting Young, opting instead for DE Mario Williams, who is developing quickly on one of pro football's most exciting young defensive lines.

Injuries at wide receiver have made it tough for Schaub. He's forced more throws in recent games, and Ahman Green's sore knees have limited the running offense. Without Young, the Titans will have to play a different game. Young's mobility opens up plenty of running lanes for an offense that averages 141.8 yards a game on the ground. Backup Kerry Collins would have to operate a more conventional pocket passing game against the Texans.

3. Chicago at Philadelphia: Though Eagles fans might be disappointed with their team's 2-3 start, Bears fans are downright depressed. So are the Bears. They are clearly experiencing the Super Bowl Losers Curse, which turns a Super Bowl loser into a losing team. The chemistry doesn't seem right on this team, and players are starting to grumble.

One of the biggest problems is defensive tackle Tommie Harris, who is playing at about 70 percent because of injuries. Harris' diminished effectiveness along with attrition at defensive tackle allows more blockers to wear down middle linebacker Brian Urlacher. The Bears could go into the tank with a loss.

4. Pittsburgh at Denver: Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan had a bye to fix a run defense that surrenders 187.6 yards a game. Because of the loss of center Tom Nalen for the season, Shanahan's only personnel moves involved adding reinforcements to the offensive line.

The only thing that favors the Broncos in this game is home field, but their poor run defense reduces that advantage. They've lost two in a row at home.

Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin's strategy will be simple. Willie Parker has four 100-yard rushing games. He'll load up the running offense and have Ben Roethlisberger make a few big throwing plays moving out of the pocket. Until Shanahan fixes the run defense, there is no need for opponents to bring in elaborate game plans. The Broncos can't stop the simple things.

5. Arizona at Washington: Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt thought he was set at quarterback. He had the developing Matt Leinart and could mix in no-huddle segments with the experienced Kurt Warner. But Leinart is out of the season and Warner is available only for maybe some no-huddle plays because of ligament damage in his left elbow. That means Tim Rattay has to try to beat Joe Gibbs on the road after being with the team for only 13 days.

The Redskins have the league's third-ranked defense and would have upset the Packers on the road in Week 6 had safety Sean Taylor held on to three interceptions he dropped. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will concentrate his game plan on stopping the Cardinals' run offense and trying to force Rattay to beat the Redskins through the air. That will be tough.

6. Minnesota at Dallas: The Patriots exposed some holes on the Cowboys. Dallas still has problems with coverage at safety and can be beaten for big plays. The Anthony Henry injury leaves the Cowboys thin at cornerback. Tony Romo's completion percentage has dropped because he's struggling to connect with Terrell Owens.

All of those things don't mean much against the Vikings. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson is completing less than 50 percent of his passes and is still vulnerable to blitzing defenses. A week ago, Cowboys coach Wade Phillips admitted he loaded up to stop the Patriots' run game and let Tom Brady beat him. Jackson isn't Tom Brady. Phillips will try to use the same strategy he used a week ago and should have better results against the Vikings.

The key to stopping the Vikings is containing the running of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. Add a few more blitzes to pressure Jackson and the Cowboys have a chance to rebound from the Patriots loss.

7. Kansas City at Oakland: Something is weird with the numbers here. The Chiefs have Larry Johnson, one of the league's most feared runners. The Raiders have LaMont Jordan, a traditional slow starter who is gutting it out with a bad back. Yet who has the better running offense? The Raiders are third, averaging 166 yards, while the Chiefs are third worst at 74.8.

Sure, the Chiefs' offensive line has age issues, but that's a ridiculous drop-off. The Raiders have an improved scheme along the line and are blowing defenders off the line of scrimmage. With the Broncos struggling and the Chargers trying to get into the groove, the AFC West is temporarily up for grabs. Denver's struggles could mean this is a battle for second place in the division.

8. Atlanta at New Orleans: Timing is everything, but Falcons head coach Bobby Petrino picked a curious time to move Byron Leftwich ahead of Joey Harrington at quarterback. Obviously, desperation played into the decision. Petrino was losing the offensive players in the locker room, so going to Leftwich gave the Falcons a better on-field leader, which was needed.

Leftwich isn't mobile and has a sore ankle. He's playing behind an offensive line that has two unknown, unproven tackles who will be going up against defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant. The Saints' pass rush has been one of the most disappointing in football with only six sacks. But the Saints are at home. They are on turf. Their defensive ends are more experienced and talented than the offensive linemen blocking them.

9. N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati: Something has to give for two of the league's biggest disappointments. The Jets went to the playoffs last year, but head coach Eric Mangini can't get anything close to a playoff effort from the defense this year. This defense can't make big plays. The Jets have forced six turnovers and registered only six sacks in six games. That's not good enough, particularly for a Chad Pennington-led offense that pushes the ball up the field with 5- and 7-yard passes.

The Bengals have big-play ability with Carson Palmer at quarterback, and they need it. Their defense is giving up 31.2 points a game and their linebacking corps looks as though it won't be healthy in the foreseeable future.

10. San Francisco 49ers at N.Y. Giants: Bay Area critics point to Mike Nolan's offensive history in San Francisco. Under Nolan, the 49ers have had 13 sub-200-yard passing games, way more than under previous 49ers coaches in the past two decades. With QB Alex Smith still recovering from a third-degree shoulder separation, it's hard to think a wounded Smith or Trent Dilfer can put up big numbers against a Giants team angling for its fifth straight victory.

John Clayton, a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame writers' wing, is a senior writer for ESPN.com.

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