Logic says the Lions should take Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson with the No. 2 overall pick in next month's draft if he's available.
Johnson appears to be a future star. He's 239 pounds and can run a 4.35 40 yard dash. His vertical jump is between 42 and 45 inches, making the 6-foot, 5-inch Johnson potentially one of the league's best red zone threats. Though humble, Johnson says he has the abilities of Terrell Owens and Randy Moss along with the work ethic of Marvin Harrison.
But logic can't trump history for a franchise that used top-10 draft choices on receivers in three straight years from 2003 through 2005 -- Charles Rogers (No. 2 overall in 2003), Roy Williams (No. 7 overall in 2004) and Mike Williams (No. 10 overall in 2005) -- with very poor results. Even if Johnson is available, the Lions, who are trying to trade out of the No. 2 pick, can't pick him. They made it pretty clear in free agency that Johnson isn't on their list, re-signing Mike Furrey (98 catches last season) as a $3 million a year No. 2 receiver to play next to Roy Williams. They gave former Rams receiver Shaun McDonald a two-year, $2.8 million contract.
Matt Millen's three-year wager on receivers was an expensive one. He bet $14.4 million in guarantees and roster bonuses on Rogers, who was cut last year after a lack of production and off-field issues, and is out of the league. He made a Pro Bowl hit with Roy Williams, who should max out the first five years of his contract at $27.68 million. Mike Williams essentially was forgotten last season despite a five-year, $11.5 million contract that had $7.5 million in guarantees. He caught just eight passes all season.
Overall, the Lions wagered more than $34 million in guarantees over three years on a position that has become one of the riskiest bets in sports. They went one for three, hitting on Roy Williams, but busting out on Rogers and Mike Williams.
Where did it go wrong? Where do you start?
Of late, the Lions have been going through head coaches as quickly as they are going through wide receivers. Millen wanted a West Coast offense specialist in 2001, but he couldn't get Steve Mariucci, who was coaching the 49ers. Millen went for what he thought was the next best thing, hiring 49ers offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg. But Mornhinweg was fired after two seasons in which the team went 5-27.
In 2003, Mariucci was available and Millen jumped at the chance to bring him to Detroit. But he also was unsuccessful, going 15-28 in two-plus seasons.
Receivers and quarterbacks will tell you it takes at least three years to learn the West Coast offense. The play calls are verbose and complicated. The routes are precise and advanced. Having that much turnover at the head coaching spot almost doomed the Lions to failure.
The West Coast offense requires a certain type of receiver, who is big and strong enough to handle the hit in the middle of the field. But the problem many West Coast offense teams are starting to learn is that the bigger the receiver, the bigger the risk. Big receivers are often a little slower, which is a problem in a league that is becoming more about speed every day. Defenses continue to load up on quick athletes. Most of the top cornerbacks run in the 4.3s. Teams that play Cover 2 defenses continue to stock their linebacking corps with smaller linebackers who can run in the 4.5 to 4.6 range. Usually, one of a team's starting safeties is a converted cornerback.
Unless a big receiver can run in the 4.48 to 4.5 second range in the 40, he is nothing more than a possession receiver with limited impact.
The problem with Rogers and Mike Williams is their lack of speed. At Michigan State, Rogers wasn't exceptionally quick. His game was being physical and out-jumping defenders.
General managers often have concerns about receivers in general. Receivers, by the nature of their position, have become showmen. A great receiver is asked to make only seven to 10 receptions a game, so many of them like to put on a show when they make a grab.
They will signal a first down after a catch to stick it in the face of a cornerback. Some will harass cornerbacks verbally. Not all are the quiet, hard-working perfectionists such as Jerry Rice and Harrison.
Certainly, injuries played a big role in Rogers downfall. In back-to-back years he broke his collarbone. In 2005, though, his Lions career started to crash. He was suspended four games for violations of the NFL's substance abuse policy. The team filed a grievance to recoup $10 million of his $14.2 million in guarantees. That move by the team ended any chance of his wanting to play for the Lions.
But the bigger issue was his lack of speed. Even now, as he trains with speed coaches, Rogers can't get any explosion into his routes. A player considered to be a can't miss prospect, Rogers can't run well enough. Despite being only 25, Rogers isn't going to get many chances to get back in the league unless he can improve his speed.
The Mike Williams saga has been a different journey but it probably will have the same ending. Williams hasn't had the kind of off-field issues Rogers had. But like Rogers, Williams hasn't shown any burst with his running abilities.
In 2004, Williams tried to enter the NFL draft after just two seasons at USC when Maurice Clarett challenged the eligibility rules (players have to be three years out of high school) for underclassman to enter the NFL draft. Even though he never was able to run better than a 4.5 on the fast track at USC, Williams left the Trojans in 2004 and tried to get into the NFL. The strategy failed. The NFL's eligibility rules ultimately held up and Williams had to sit out the 2004 season and wait for the 2005 draft.
In 2005, the Lions had their eyes on a cornerback in the draft. But three corners went in the first nine picks, so the Lions were left to scramble. They couldn't get value in a trade to a lower spot in the first round. With Williams being the highest-rated player left on their board, the Lions made him their third straight first-round receiver.
Like many tall West Coast receivers taken in the first round, Mike Williams failed for several reasons. He battled weight problems and had trouble getting below 230 pounds. With the extra weight, he couldn't get into his routes fast enough. In addition to those physical shortcomings, he infuriated coaches by being late for meetings.
With a new coaching staff this past season, he was an afterthought. Mike Martz, who was hired as the offensive coordinator, runs an offense in which receivers need to be more like running backs once they catch the ball. Martz' system is based on quickness. He wants receivers to hit the routes quickly and then excel with the ball after the catch.
Williams could do no better than being a fourth or a fifth receiver in the Lions offense of 2006. Furrey, who played safety in St. Louis in 2005, soared past him into a starting role. The Lions even lined up quarterback Josh McCown at wide receiver in a few games while Williams watched from the sidelines.
Though he is still on the Lions' roster for a third season, Williams doesn't appear to be their long-term plans.
Since the Lions' three-year infatuation with receivers, other NFL teams have gone different directions with what they do with receivers. More and more teams are looking to free agency at receivers who already have proved they can play. The smaller, quicker receivers also have become more popular with a lot of teams than the tall, hulking pass-catchers.
As good as Calvin Johnson might be, logic and Detroit's terrible recent history in drafting receivers say the Lions will look the other way.
John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.