LAS VEGAS -- We often write about how the books try to split the action with their point spreads and totals -- and also split the results between favorites and 'dogs and overs and unders.
They did a good job of that in both respects Thursday night as the Baltimore closed as a 3-point road favorite at Pittsburgh and, even though the Steelers looked like the right side most of the game, ended up winning 23-20 in overtime to push (though early Ravens backers cashed if laying -2.5). The over/under closed at 44 and stayed just under.
For the season, favorites lead just 23-22-2 ATS (both pushes coming in Pittsburgh games on Thursday nights as they lost the opener at New England by 7 points to push against that closing number) and overs hold a 25-21-3 edge.
Week 3
Home: 8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS
Favorites: 10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS (ATL-DAL closed pick 'em)
Home 'dogs: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS
Double-digit 'dogs: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS
Over/unders: 10-5-1
Season to date (including Thursday night):
Home: 27-22 SU, 25-22-2 ATS
Favorites: 28-19 SU, 23-22-2 ATS
Home 'dogs: 7-9 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
Double-digit 'dogs: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS
Over/unders: 25-21-3
My results in this weekly column also have split as I went 2-3 ATS last week on sides and 3-1 on over/unders to stand at 7-7 ATS and 6-6 on over/unders. (Note: I'm also 1-1-2 with Thursday night picks.)
Last week: 2-3 ATS on sides, 3-1 on over/unders
Season: 7-7 ATS on sides, 6-6 on over/unders
But let's get going on the rest of this weekend's card. We'll take our normal look at how the public is viewing each matchup, what the wiseguys are thinking and then I'll give my take on each game with either a side or total I like or at least a recommendation for a "pool play" if I don't like the game that much. Best bets will be marked with an asterisk (*) and those are the ones we grade as official plays.
Note: The listed spread for each game is from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of early Friday morning. The public consensus pick percentages are from ESPN Insider's NFL PickCenter, also as of Friday morning.
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins (at London)
Spread: Jets -1.5
Public consensus pick: 65 percent picked Jets
Public perception: The public is backing the Jets as they gained a lot of followers with blowout wins over the Browns and Colts. The loss to the Eagles wasn't too bad, plus the Dolphins have lost a lot of support with their disappointing start.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are split on this matchup. Our NFL Vegas Rankings list Miami as a value play.
Tuley's take: I have the Dolphins power-rated as the slightly better team, and they might have a small home-field advantage considering this is the team's third trip to London (including a 38-14 win over the Raiders last year), but it's hard to pull the trigger the way they've been playing. The over/under has been rising and I'm liking the under more and more as Miami has had a tough time with easier defenses and I don't see the Jets lighting up the scoreboard either.
The pick: Under 42* (pool play: Dolphins)
