Sports Betting
Graham McKean 9y

Is there betting value on the Atlanta Hawks?

NBA, Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks are enjoying their best season ever, winning 60 games for first time in franchise history and locking up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, a feat they hadn't accomplished in 21 years. Despite this historic season, though, they aren't getting any respect from bettors or bookmakers in Las Vegas.

Atlanta could be the least-bet 60-plus win team in NBA history, and at 12-1 to win the NBA title per the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook the Hawks also could have the best value. Jay Kornegay, head oddsmaker at the Westgate, is as surprised as anyone.

"The Hawks will be the No. 1 seed out of the East and 12-1 for the championship. We only have one ticket on the Hawks to win the title at 12-1. It's amazing the lack of interest in Atlanta."

When the public isn't backing a team, it can often be attributed to a superficial and unappealing trait -- of which the Hawks have many. They don't have a superstar, they're unproven in the playoffs and they win with defense and bench depth over flash. But when the sharps lean the same way as the public, it usually points to a deeper issue with the team.

The question is: Does failing the eye test have enough merit to justify avoiding Atlanta or is there somehow value in taking the No. 1 seed? One thing is for certain: As of now the Hawks are unproven and it's hurting their action. Ed Salmons, a bookmaker at the Westgate explains, "The public and wise guys have zero interest in betting the Hawks at 3-1 for the conference or 12-1 for the championship. The only people rooting for the Hawks will be the city of Atlanta and Las Vegas. [The] public is busy betting Warriors, Cavaliers and other teams they believe in."

So why doesn't Atlanta stack up historically to other great teams? Per ESPN Stats & Information, the Hawks are now the 47th team over the past 30 years to win 60 or more games. Of the other 46, only one of them has a worse net efficiency (points per 100 possessions) than these Hawks, so by this measure they're the second-weakest 60-plus win team during that span (see table below).

This could be a contributing factor to why they aren't passing the eye test at the moment, at least when compared to the historical greats. Yet while net efficiency is a viable means to compare them with other great teams of the past, come playoff time they aren't going to be playing the historical greats -- they're playing an Eastern Conference that they destroyed in the regular season (38-14 record).

The Hawks didn't lose a single game in January and have a winning record against every Eastern Conference playoff team except the Raptors (1-3), even going 3-1 against the odds-on Eastern Conference favorite Cleveland Cavaliers. In fact, the Hawks handed the Cavs their largest defeat of the season in which the big three (LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love) all played, a 29-point home loss back on Dec. 17.

In addition, the lack of a superstar may not be the detriment it's perceived to be. Only one of the 16 other 60-plus win teams in the past 10 seasons has had its top three players combine for fewer than 25 win shares. The lone team? None other than the 2013-2014 NBA champion San Antonio Spurs, whose top three players (Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker) combined for only 21.0 win shares of their 62-20 record. It's also fitting that the Spurs, the team with which Atlanta is most often compared, constitute three of the four other teams on the list below.

One might argue that the Spurs did in fact have a superstar in Kawhi Leonard last season, and although he certainly earned his NBA Finals MVP, in reality he didn't contribute with that level of consistency in the regular season (7.7 win shares in 2013-2014). Who is to say a healthy Paul Millsap at 8.3 win shares in 2014-2015 couldn't be the catalyst to spark a similar run?

In terms of the playoff road map, Atlanta's first opponent is the Brooklyn Nets, a team it has gone 4-0 against in the regular season with an average margin of victory of 17.2 PPG. If ever there was a dream matchup for the Hawks to get their legs underneath them while their younger (yet integral) bench players such as Dennis Schroder and Mike Scott gain crucial playoff experience, this is it.

No second-round matchup is ever easy, but by losing the final game of the regular season the Hawks ensured that they will not have to face either of the next two Eastern Conference Vegas favorites, the Cavs and Bulls, until the conference finals. With Derrick Rose returning to the rotation and the Bulls looking to make a title run of their own, avoiding them and instead facing the Wizards or Raptors would seem to be the preferable option.

Atlanta will likely have to go through the Cavs either way to win the East, but getting there means they'll be one of only four teams remaining. And if they reach the conference finals, you may be wishing you had a 12-1 ticket in your back pocket.

^ Back to Top ^