66.
As in 66th. As in where Andrew Wiggins finished on the 2014-15 Player Rater.
The NBA Rookie of the Year? Just a seventh-round fantasy pick.
When measured against the stark, fluorescent glow of statistical reality, highly drafted fantasy NBA rookies rarely deliver on their promise.
The 2012-13 season giftwrapped Damian Lillard and Anthony Davis. Today, both qualify as droolworthy top-10 draft choices. It's easy to make a case for Davis as the No. 1 overall pick. But as rookies, both barely cracked the top 60.
The oft-maligned draft class of 2013-14 still produced two top-100 players in Victor Oladipo and Michael Carter-Williams. When it comes to rookies, playing time trumps hype and draft position. A defined role in a high-pace, low-expectation situation means more than having been drafted No. 1 overall.
The class of 2014-15? Touted as a vast improvement, these were the guys we were waiting for. But in the end it only produced two top-100 players: Wiggins and springtime sensation Nikola Mirotic (clocking in at 96th). Owners would have gotten better draft-night value from graybeards like Joe Johnson or fringe rotation players like Brandan Wright.
To be fair, three of last season's most ballyhooed tyros -- Julius Randle, Joel Embiid, and my dented pick for fantasy ROY Jabari Parker -- saw their premiere campaigns scrapped by injury.
But rookies tend to be delicate. They're playing more games than they ever have in their life, are learning to deal with the NBA grind and are getting life advice from DeMarcus Cousins.
In a non-keeper setting, investing anything higher than a ninth-round draft choice on a rookie is tantamount to over-ebullience. However year after year, we get sucked into the rookie buzz on one or two players and overpay for their services.
There are values to be had, one-to-two month stretches where certain rookies put it all together. But the problem is you're overpaying for low-end production while waiting for the breakout.
In DFS situations, rookies can serve as low-risk, high-reward plays. Watching them develop into eventual top-10 talents over time is one of the heady joys of an auction keeper league.
The rookies of 2015-16 are worthy of your excitement. It's a talented group, brimming with skill, athletic upside and statistical and multi-positional diversity.
I'm listing these players in terms of projected return on your draft night investment, which means I'm factoring in what you'll have to invest for said rookie's services.
1. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Denver Nuggets
Approximate Average Draft Position: 100
In the rookie market, I'm always looking for the Damian Lillard Blank Check. A spot where the heavens align to hand a high-upside rookie point guard a starting job in a shallow rotation.
The 2013 Blazers were kiddie-pool shallow at the one spot. With Jameer Nelson serving as a capable backup, Mudiay doesn't exactly have a blank check. But it will take a sizable implosion for Mudiay to play himself out of the role.
Ty Lawson's hasty exit paved the way for Mudiay to become a serious frontrunner for Rookie of the Year...in fantasy and reality.
The big reason why Mudiay intrigues me: his atypical, Brandon Jennings-esque pedigree. Instead of registering a one-and-done college career, Mudiay punched a time card in overseas in China. He got hurt halfway through his season overseas, but gained invaluable experience.
In the Vegas Summer League, Mudiay was what every fantasy owner looks for in a prospective rookie; a man amongst boys. It was an atypical Summer League performance in that Mudiay was noted for his team-first approach. He got his (48 points), but also helped his temporary teammates get theirs (23 assists).
Mudiay suffers from the typical rookie maladies; inefficiency and inconsistency. His jumper is in need of some industrial-grade ironing. Mudiay's going to have nights like his preseason opener, where Chris Paul basically hypnotized him into submission.
Just remember, come opening night, Mudiay starts every possession with the rock in his hands. That's a proven shortcut to rookie production. Mudiay's guaranteed high usage rate will afford him extended opportunities to smooth out his shot and reduce the turnovers.
Mudiay is a solid play in the ninth round.
2. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Minnesota Timberwolves
Approximate ADP: 40
Blocks. 3-pointers. Boards. Kentucky. All indicators point north, straight towards Anthony Davis 2.0.
The hype is knee-deep in both fantasy and reality. It's well deserved. Towns is raw, but skilled, explosive and is displaying Year 2 range on his jumper.
He's also surrounded by young upside. Wiggins, Zach LaVine and Shabazz Muhammad could all end up on the fantasy radar by New Year's Day. Ricky Rubio and Gorgui Dieng? Moderately to seriously underrated.
Towns is in a low-expectation situation. He has an interim head coach, for crying out loud. This is a well-humidified petri dish, a developmental phase. This is top shelf Triple-A.
He's surrounded by the right veterans. Kevin Garnett. Andre Miller. Kevin Martin. This would have been a playoff core...in 2005. Now it's heady NBA senior citizenry.
I told you that so I could tell you this; you're drafting Towns too high.
Looking at the Live Draft Results, Karl-Anthony Towns is currently going off the board in the early 40s. Anthony Davis 1.0 only finished his rookie season at 60!
A big reason why? Davis' body and playing had to adjust to the NBA grind. College big men on outrageously loaded superteams like Kentucky don't have to play more than 20 minutes a night. And they only play 30 games a season. Going to 30 minutes and 82 games is a big leap.
And don't forget...for a developmental situation, the Wolves are paying three other players worthy of extended frontcourt minutes. Garnett, Dieng and a somewhat healthier Nikola Pekovic could vulture minutes from Towns, especially to start the season.
Towns could showcase second-to-third round production right out of the gate. But that would make him a truly exceptional outlier. History dictates that you're overpaying by 15-to-25 draft picks.
In a non-keeper league, I'll let another owner overpay for Towns' services and wait to use him in DFS.
3. Jahlil Okafor, C, Philadelphia 76ers
Approximate ADP: 80
One of the reasons this draft class is so interesting? The Lakers defied their historical tendencies and drafted a point guard in favor of a big man like Okafor. He slid to the Sixers! He's playing in front of all those angry Philadelphians!
If local osmosis occurs, Okafor is lined up for a John Wick-like statistical vendetta. A vengeance ride that could propel him to ROY honors.
Remember what Michael Carter-Williams did his rookie campaign? He outperformed expectations thanks to the Sixers' high-pace, "let's go back to the lottery" mindset.
Okafor arrives with a polished post game that leans more toward Al Jefferson, and his name is already engraved into the Sixers' starting five. Team management is into their fourth year of the never-ending "Tankapalooza Tour." Embiid is convalescing for another extended period. Okafor's ambulatory frontcourt partner, Nerlens Noel, is not known for his low-post scoring acumen.
Wait. Read the fine print first.
Okafor lacks John Wick-esque explosiveness. He's a sure bet to score and rebound, but a high PPG average won't mask a lack of blocked shots. Okafor averaged 1.4 blocks per game at Duke, but he's not known for his defense. Oh, and even distant cousin Emeka (58 percent career FT%) is a better at the stripe (51 percent college FT%).
Okafor's going to get all the playing time he can handle. I'm confident he ultimately becomes a well-rounded NBA player. But out of the gate, he just looks like points, boards and an anchor on your free throw percentage.
I wouldn't bite until the end of the ninth round.
4. Myles Turner, PF, Indiana Pacers
Approximate ADP: 140
Traditionally, big men are slow to "put it all together." But there's one stat where rookie big men historically excel: blocks. Players actually tend to register their career-high in blocks their first couple of NBA seasons.
Myles Turner is one of several players who went in the mid-to-late lottery who could end their rookie campaigns as productive members of fantasy society. I love several of the picks in this range, but Turner has serious darkhorse ROY potential.
Like Towns, Turner combines shot-blocking acumen with skill and range. I always preach not to stare too heavily at Summer League numbers. But when the numbers are 18.7 points, 4.3 blocks and 8.3 boards, you can peek a little.
I'm grabbing Turner as an endgame pick.
5. Frank Kaminsky, C, Charlotte Hornets
Approximate ADP: 130
Beware the Cody Zeller-type hype. Beware the polished, skilled, heavily-awarded college big man. Every fall, these well-decorated ex-amateurs walk into the NBA gymnasiums, only to find it's hard to find one's shot.
I don't think Kaminsky is that guy.
When a rookie arrives with stretch-four potential, gets coaches raving about him, and only has to beat out the actual Cody Zeller and someone affectionately referred to as "Psycho"...that guy is definitely worth an endgame pick.
6. D'Angelo Russell, PG, Los Angeles Lakers
Approximate ADP: 90
I really, really wanted to list Russell higher. After all, he's likely to be the starting point guard on opening night. He'll be feeding Kobe Bryant in a lineup that's been crying for high-upside floor generalship.
However, Russell has yet to display he can play consistently at NBA speed. In Summer League and preseason, we've seen flashes of talent. But we've also seen he's a little behind on the curve compared to Mudiay.
I'm confident Russell's NBA handle arrives on time...as in early this season. But he has Kobe, Lou Williams, Jordan Clarkson and Nick Young to eat up touches and shots. The onus on Russell early on will be to facilitate, which translates to assists, steals and not much else.
I like Russell very late, but I'd much rather have Mudiay to start the season.
7. Stanley Johnson, SF, Detroit Pistons
Approximate ADP: 120
Johnson's the kind of player who always ends up as an underrated fantasy contributor. I look at him and I think Doug Christie; a complete player who fills up a box score with across-the-board production.
I love Johnson's polish and statistical potential. If he gets the minutes, he's another darkhorse ROY. Unfortunately, Johnson's probably locked in a timeshare with Marcus Morris at SF for the foreseeable future. But there's just too much upside with Johnson to stick him with just 20-to-25 MPG.
Hopefully, Stan Van Gundy follows up on the talk of also finding Johnson minutes at the two. I think Johnson's SVG's kind of guy, and Van Gundy will find ways to manufacture minutes.
Johnson's a solid last-round pick in deeper leagues, and a guy to watch closely on the wire in shallow leagues.
8. Kristaps Porzingis, PF, New York Knicks
Approximate ADP: 120
Credit to Phil Jackson for swinging for the fences at No. 4. There's a chance -- just a chance -- that Porzingis ends up as the best player in this draft. No matter where he lands in 2017 redraft columns, big men who can chip in blocks and 3s are prized commodities in fantasy.
Who knows? Maybe Porzingis is Latvian for "Nowitzki." Or maybe it's just "Bargnani." Maybe it's neither. Porzingis has shown more rim-protecting inclination than both of those guys combined. That's why Phil Jackson has been mining the Pau Gasol comps.
Porzingis may be an international man of some mystery, but a lot of serious basketball minds are very high on him. Porzingis may not begin the season as the Knicks' starting power forward. But with the Knicks still in rebuilding mode, it would be a big surprise if he weren't starting in near future.
In the end, he only has to contend with Derrick Williams and Kyle O'Quinn for playing time, so one way or another, he'll land around 25 MPG.
The upside makes Porzingis a solid endgame gamble.
9. Justise Winslow, SF, Miami Heat
Approximate ADP: 110
Every postdraft column in existence seemed to include the phrase "the Heat got the greatest steal in the history of the NBA draft when Winslow improbably slid into the grasp of Pat Riley's Hall Of Fame talons at No. 10 overall." (I'm paraphrasing, but people were pumped.)
The reality; Winslow is stuck behind Luol Deng and Gerald Green for minutes. The Heat are suddenly a sexy sneaky pick for winning the Eastern Conference. There just won't be much of a role for Winslow out of the gate.
Wait for the inevitable Deng injury, and then snap him off the wire.
10. Mario Hezonja, SF, Orlando Magic
Approximate ADP: 110
Love Hezonja long-term. But as of today, he's stuck behind Tobias Harris at small forward. Not to mention Scott Skiles is not known for ladling out heavy minutes to his rookies.
Leave him for the wire.
Others to watch: Jerian Grant, PG, New York Knicks; Willie Cauley-Stein, PF/C, Sacramento Kings; Devin Booker, SG, Phoenix Suns; Kelly Oubre, SF, Washington Wizards; Rashad Vaughn, SG, Milwaukee Bucks