NBA teams
Ben Alamar, ESPN Stats & Info 9y

NBA BPI: Southwest dominance

NBA, Atlanta Hawks, Detroit Pistons

The Southwest Division is dominating the NBA, and if history is any guide, there is a good chance the division will be home of the league's champion yet again. Using ESPN's NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) we can see the true strength of the Southwest Division and what it means for the rest of the league.

Four of the top eight teams in BPI are in the Southwest Division. The Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs are currently neck and neck at third and fourth in the rankings, and the Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies are not far behind at No. 6 and No. 8, respectively. And while the top of the division is strong, even more remarkable is that the lowest-ranked team in the division, the New Orleans Pelicans, is ranked 15th, so the weakest team is equivalent to an average NBA team.

BPI measures the expected scoring margin for a team against an average team, so the Mavericks would be expected to beat an average team on a neutral court by 4.4 points. The average BPI of teams in the Southwest is 3.6, with the Pacific a distant second with an average BPI of 1.9.

Three of the top 10 offenses in the league (Mavericks, Pelicans, and Rockets) are in the Southwest, and three of the top 10 defenses (Spurs, Grizzlies and Rockets) are also in the Southwest. Using BPI to simulate the rest of the season, we estimate how many wins each team will have come playoff time. Right now, the average Southwest team is expected to win 51 games -- that's the average. The closest division in terms of average expected wins is the Pacific (45).

The 2014-15 version of the Southwest Division is not just dominant. It's at near-record levels. Since the current divisional structure was put into place for the 2004-05 season, only one division finished the season with a higher average BPI. That was the 2010-11 Southwest with an average BPI of 3.7.

That season, four of the five teams in the Southwest made the playoffs, and the Rockets barely missed. The division had an average win total of 50.6, and it also had the league's No. 1 seed (the Spurs) and eventual NBA champion (Mavericks). In fact, since realignment in 2004, a division has finished with an average BPI of more than three just five times, and four times the eventual champion came out of that division -- though not always the team that won the division.

BPI Notes:

Biggest Riser: The Spurs moved up to third from sixth last week and now have a 43 percent chance to capture a top-four seed in the playoffs.

Biggest Faller: The Indiana Pacers fell from 20th to 23rd and now have only a 13 percent chance to make the playoffs.

Handicapping the West's eighth seed: Thunder (43 percent), Suns (44 percent), and Pelicans (19 percent). These add to more than 100 percent, as there is a 7.1 percent chance that one of the top seven will fall out.

Race to the bottom: Teams with the best chance to capture the top pick in the 2015 draft are, in order: 76ers (23 percent), Timberwolves (22 percent), Knicks (14 percent), Lakers (11 percent).

Note: The NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength developed by the ESPN Analytics team. BPI is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. BPI accounts for game-by-game efficiencies, strength of schedule, pace, number of days' rest, game location and preseason expectations. Ratings will be updated in this space weekly.

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