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Rivals could cinch up -- or knock out -- playoff spots

It's Rivalry Week, but there's far more at stake than just bragging rights and recruiting turf.

In the final week before championship weekend, we'll find out who is heading to their respective conference championship games -- and one step closer to the College Football Playoff.

Here's a look at what's on the line in the most meaningful games to date:

1. Notre Dame at Stanford

What's at stake for the Irish: A spot in the top four, a third win over an opponent ranked in the committee's top 25 (along with Navy and USC), and an 11-1 season. Until proven otherwise, Notre Dame remains an X-factor in the CFP because of the possibility it could knock out two Power 5 conference champions. Notre Dame doesn't have a conference title game, obviously, so this will be its final chance to make a statement to the committee and prove it's one of the best teams in the country. It will need to beat Stanford convincingly to do that. A loss would knock Notre Dame out of the playoff.

What's at stake for the Cardinal: Stanford could get a big résumé boost with a win over Notre Dame, especially if it goes on to win the Pac-12 title. A win over the Irish, plus a win over a ranked USC or UCLA team and a conference championship would keep Stanford in the debate.

2. Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

What's at stake for the Sooners: The Big 12 title and cementing their spot in the top four. If Oklahoma wins, it will clinch the Big 12 title and make a case to stay in the top four in spite of not having a championship game to play in. It would help the Sooners if Notre Dame lost, because if the Irish sneak back in, OU will likely be battling the Big Ten champ for the last spot.

What's at stake for the Cowboys: Oklahoma State can still win the Big 12 title if it beats OU and Baylor loses to either TCU or Texas. The Cowboys wouldn't be a lock for the top four even with a title, though, because they didn't play a Power 5 nonconference opponent.

3. Penn State at Michigan State

What's at stake: Michigan State can clinch the Big Ten's East Division with a win and earn a spot in the Big Ten championship game against Iowa. Should the Spartans knock off an undefeated Hawkeyes team, it would be very difficult for the selection committee to leave them out considering their résumé probably would include wins over four top-25 teams and a conference title.

4. Ohio State at Michigan

What's at stake: The only way this game becomes relevant to the playoff is if Michigan State loses to Penn State. Otherwise, both of these teams are locked out of the Big Ten title game. With this being a noon game, though, and the Michigan State-Penn State game at 3:30 p.m. ET, they'll have no way of knowing if they're still in the East Division race, so they should both be playing as if it's all still on the line -- because technically, it will be.

5. Alabama at Auburn

What's at stake: Alabama's place in the top four. If the Tide lose, they probably are out, as Alabama already has a home loss to Ole Miss. It would be hard to discount the Tide entirely with a loss, though, as ESPN's Football Power Index projects there is a 42 percent chance that more than one Power 5 conference has a two-loss league champion.

6. Baylor at TCU

What's at stake: Baylor has to beat both TCU and Texas, and it has to have Oklahoma lose to Oklahoma State to finish as a one-loss Big 12 champion. With two losses, TCU's best hope at this point is to play the role of spoiler and knock Baylor out of the conversation for good.

7. UCLA at USC

What's at stake: The Pac-12 South division and role of spoiler. The winner of this game will face Stanford in the Pac-12 championship game, but even if USC or UCLA goes on to win the conference, it probably will be left out of the playoff because USC already has four losses and UCLA has three. One of the main reasons the playoff is at four teams and not eight is because those in charge didn't want to have automatic qualifiers. The FBS commissioners didn't want to see a three- or a four-loss conference champ in the bracket when there are clearly better available teams.

8. Iowa at Nebraska

What's at stake: Vindication. Iowa has proven its critics wrong with wins week after week, and it has already clinched the Big Ten's West Division, but if the Hawkeyes can't escape Lincoln with a win, it will provide the naysayers with more ammunition to question the credence of their spot in the ranking. The Big Ten's East Division winner should be cheering for Iowa, though, because it would obviously be better to beat an undefeated Iowa than one that just lost to an unranked Nebraska team. A loss here wouldn't necessarily knock Iowa out of the playoff, but it would have to win the Big Ten title to even be considered.

9. Navy at Houston

What's at stake: The winner of this game clinches the American's West division and remains in the hunt for a New Year's Six Bowl as the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. The winner will play either Temple or USF in the conference title game.


Thursday thought

The Big Ten's nine-game conference schedule can't get here fast enough for Iowa. Under the new format, the Hawkeyes can't escape playing all of the East Division's best teams during the regular season. They certainly don't have to line up against Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan in consecutive weeks, but the nine-game league format would help Iowa's schedule enormously, not to mention the evaluation of them for playoff consideration. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Iowa would have less than a 40 percent chance to beat any of the contenders in the Big Ten East in the conference championship game on Dec. 5. We're not going to truly know how good Iowa is until it plays in the Big Ten championship game. Not even the Big 12 has that problem.


Superlatives

Player in the spotlight: Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield. He's expected to start after suffering a head injury Saturday that caused him to miss the second half against TCU, and the Sooners need him in the lineup to beat Oklahoma State. OU scored 23 points in the first half with Mayfield and seven points in the second half with backup Trevor Knight.

Under the radar: FSU RB Dalvin Cook. He's averaging eight yards per carry -- second most in the FBS among players with at least 100 rushes behind Georgia Southern's Matt Breida (8.2). With several players like Leonard Fournette and Trevone Boykin out of the Heisman spotlight, there should be more consideration for Cook to get in it.

Can't-miss game: Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. If the Sooners win, they clinch the Big 12 title, and that will carry a lot of weight with the CFP selection committee, even in the absence of a title game. Don't discount the Cowboys. Last year, Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma as a 19.5-point underdog. The Cowboys overcame a 14-point deficit in the final five minutes.

Matchup to watch: Urban Meyer vs. Jim Harbaugh. It's the first-time these two heavyweight coaches will face each other, and there's no better place for it than in The Game.

Upset alert: Iowa at Nebraska. The Hawkeyes have clinched the Big Ten's West Division and a spot in the conference championship game after starting 11-0 for the first time in program history. Nebraska, though, has won two straight games for the first time this season. If the Huskers win Saturday, they have a chance to avoid only their third losing season in the past 50 years. The Hawkeyes have a 50.2 percent chance to beat Nebraska on Friday, according to ESPN's FPI.


Games of the week

Baylor at TCU
Pregame matchup quality: 97.6

  • Baylor: 52 percent predicted win percentage (0.7 predicted point differential)

  • Only remaining regular-season game between teams ranked in the top 5 of FPI

    Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
    Pregame matchup quality: 95.8

  • Oklahoma: 68 percent predicted win percentage (6.3 predicted point differential)

  • Oklahoma State: Had a 7.6 percent chance to beat Oklahoma last year, marking its most unlikely win in the last 10 seasons

    Ohio State at Michigan
    Pregame matchup quality: 92.5

  • Ohio State: 58 percent predicted win percentage (2.7 predicted point differential)

  • FPI favorite has won each of the last 10 meetings between these teams

    Notre Dame at Stanford
    Pregame matchup quality: 89.8

  • Stanford: 62 percent predicted win percentage (4.2 predicted point differential)

  • Kevin Hogan (8th) and DeShone Kizer (10th) rank in the top 10 in Total QBR

    Ole Miss at Mississippi State
    Pregame matchup quality: 89.1

  • Ole Miss: 59% predicted win percentage (3.2 predicted point differential)

  • Dak Prescott: 11th player in major-college history with at least 40 career touchdowns rushing and passing

    -- ESPN Stats & Information