The Vikings are gaining steam as a 2015 sleeper -- and for good reason.
As a rookie, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater went 6-6 and averaged 22.1 points a game in 12 starts, posting the 11th-best completion percentage in the NFL (64.4). And he did all that with Adrian Peterson on the commissioner's exempt list, tight end Kyle Rudolph and two starting offensive linemen sidelined with various ailments, and left tackle Matt Kalil playing poorly through injuries.
Clearly, Bridgewater benefits from having Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator. Even without Peterson, Turner managed to put together a rushing attack that averaged 112.8 yards a game, ranking 14th in the league.
The NFL may be a quarterback-driven league, but a young passer without a top running game usually averages between 15-19.5 points per game, which projects to a double-digit loss season.
Recent history backs that up. Blake Bortles did a lot of good things for Jacksonville last year, but the Jaguars made a coordinator change because the team didn't run the ball well enough. The Jaguars ranked 21st in rushing. Bortles averaged 15.7 points per game. Jacksonville went 3-13.
The Oakland Raiders had the league's worst running attack (77.5 ypg). Despite showing great promise in his rookie year, Derek Carr averaged only 15.8 points per game and went 3-13. Brandon Weeden failed in Cleveland operating in an offense that averaged less than 100 yards a game rushing in two years.
Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton were success stories early in their careers because of their talent -- and because they had the benefit of running attacks that typically produced 130 yards or more. (Yes, you can pile up added rushing yardage late in wins, but all three of these teams built around the run.) Look what Peterson did for Christian Ponder. In 2012, Peterson rushed for 2,097 yards coming off knee surgery. Ponder averaged 23.7 points per game and the Vikings made the playoffs. After four years, Minnesota determined Ponder wasn't good enough and moved on to Bridgewater.
Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were the main prizes from the 2008 draft, but both franchises made sure they were covered in the backfield. The Atlanta Falcons signed Michael Turner, ranked second in rushing and made the playoffs. The Baltimore Ravens also made it to the postseason with Flacco, thanks in part to a running game that ranked fourth in the league (148.5 ypg).
It's not a stretch to expect a healthy Peterson to add 30 yards a game to the Vikings running offense, which would be worth around two or three points per game. That type of improvement should make the Vikings a playoff team. Since 2003, teams that have made the playoffs averaged 25.2 points a game. Any offense that can put up between 23.5-25 points per game is playoff worthy. If coach Mike Zimmer can continue to work his magic with the defense -- the Vikings went from 32nd in points allowed in 2013 to 11th last season -- Minnesota could jump from 7-9 to 9-7 or maybe 10-6.
From the inbox
Q: I just read an interesting story by Jason Reid about Alfred Morris, among several other players. Morris has vastly outperformed his rookie contract, and Reid argues that rookie deals should be restructured so players such as Morris can be fairly compensated. Couldn't the rookie deals have performance-based bonuses tied to the rookie base salary? In this case the owners will be protected from overpaying rookies who don't perform, and the players will still be compensated fairly if they do produce.
From Victor in Missoula, Montana
A: There is a performance pay system for rookies and veterans. Seantrel Henderson, a seventh-round tackle for the Buffalo Bills, collected $373,671 for playing 100 percent the offensive snaps for the Bills last year. Corey Linsley, a fifth-round center for the Green Bay Packers, earned $339,566. Both Henderson and Linsley earned that in addition to their $420,000 base salaries. In total, more than $116 million was distributed around the league last season to rookies and veterans. The league looks at each player's snaps played compared to his fellow teammates and tries to reward lower-paid rookies and veterans who might have gotten shorted. This money comes from the benefits package for players. The only change that could be made to the policy: allowing teams and players to talk contact extensions after two years instead of three. As it stands now, it's hard for teams to get draft choices between the second and seventh rounds to accept contract extensions in the fourth and final years of their deals because they think they could make big dollars in free agency. Such a change would give players a chance to get more dollars earlier, while also affording teams the means to lock up their stars.
Q: How is it that the NFL has been sitting on the appeal request for Le'Veon Bell for nine months, but visit Tom Brady's so quickly? Is there no appeal process that has to be followed?
From Sean in Baltimore, Maryland
A: All of these suspension appeals have dragged on. There is an appeal process, but there isn't a deadline for the decision. You would have to think a bunch of decisions will be made before the start of training camp. Part of the reason for delay in the Greg Hardy and Brady cases is the league could be worried about those cases going to federal court. The Bell case won't go to federal court, but you are right in thinking it has dragged on. The announcement of his three-game suspension was in April.
Q: I read Patrick in Seattle's question last week, and your answer regarding a potential developmental league, and I wonder why the NFL doesn't partner with the Arena Football League, take away some of the quirky rules, use a bigger (not full size) field, and put rules in place that favor development for the NFL. It seems the teams are already there, and those guys who are looking to stay in the game already gravitate to the AFL to continue to play. I could see an eight-on-eight league being successful if they lengthen the field a bit (80x40 yards) and take away the goofy sideline barriers, so the game is scaled for size more closely as the 11-man/100-yard NFL. I understand that some of the current arenas wouldn't support that, but the games could be moved outside, and there are plenty of small college stadiums that could be modified and used, and would probably cost less than leasing major basketball arenas.
From Deck in Fort Worth, Texas
A: If the NFL is going to have a developmental league, it needs to be one that has the exact same rules as the NFL. Partnering with the Arena Football League might be good for developing receivers and quarterbacks, but I'm not sure about the other positions. NFL coaches already have their hands full trying to convert college players coming out of spread offenses. Trying an AFL development league wouldn't develop players to play an NFL-style game.
Q: I respectfully disagree with your response about the Bears not trading for a QB before camp. While there may not be anyone available with Jay Cutler's million dollar arm, there are plenty of QBs who would be better.
From John in Corvallis, Oregon
A: There may be quarterbacks who would be better, but the Bears wouldn't be able to acquire them. They aren't on the market. Let's just say Cutler is in that tier of quarterbacks rated between the 15th and 18th in the league. Teams with quarterbacks ranked higher than that aren't going to trade for Cutler. Plus, John Fox is doing a complete overhaul on the defensive side of the ball, switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Tearing up the offense by trading the quarterback would be too much in one year.
Q: John, with the high-profile wide receivers who were franchised this offseason and the July 15 date looming, who, if any, will be the first to sign and "set the market"?
From Joe in Los Molinos, California
A: There is a good chance no deal gets done before July 15. Time is running out. The receiver who does the first deal might be topped by the other receivers. The Falcons usually like to try to lock up their top players, so Julio Jones might be the first. It's not out of the question for the Cincinnati Bengals to get something done with A.J. Green. Of the two franchise-tagged receivers, Demaryius Thomas might be done before Dez Bryant, but we are less than three weeks away from the July 15 deadline, which ceases all long-term contract conversations.
Q: I know the NFL is a league in which you can get injured on one play and your career is over, but why doesn't it seem that the players have opt outs in their contracts? I know that a running back would almost never get one because of the pounding they take, but what about an Andrew Luck? He will most certainly get a rich extension, but if he had an opt out in the middle of his contract, he could use it to grab more money via free agency or a new contract from the Colts. Why not have these opt out clauses in the NFL? This could give players a chance to leave if they are unhappy with their contract and status in the organization (like Adrian Peterson).
From John in Cleveland, Ohio
A: Teams sign players to long-term contract to keep them on the team. If they give too many opt outs, salaries would jump too fast and players would gain too much leverage in future negotiations. There are some opt-out deals done, but they are usually given to older players or for the purpose of stretching out signing bonus proration into future years for cap purposes. Negotiations in the NFL are all about leverage. If a player has the leverage to gain an opt out, he might be able to slide it into his contract, but most players don't have that type of leverage.
Q: With the Seahawks and Russell Wilson contacts talk at a stalemate, if the Seahawks placed the franchise tag on him, do you see a team desperate for an elite quarterback offering Wilson a max contract and giving the Seahawks two first-round draft choices?
From Ken in Silverdale, Washington
A: There's always a chance, but it would be hard for a team to come up with a deal the Seahawks wouldn't match. If Wilson plays out his contract at $1.542 million, the Seahawks will save $17 million or $20 million this year. The Seahawks would not feel bad about matching an offer of, say, $25 million per year because of the money they might save this year. Plus, a few of the teams that might bid (New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, for example) don't have the cap room to structure a deal that includes a big first-year cap number, and in my estimation, that's one of the only things that would cause the Seahawks not to match.
Short takes
Back to Bridgewater: Thomas in Waterloo, Iowa, thinks Bridgewater will be a top-10 quarterback by the end of the season. I don't see him being as good as Luck and Wilson by Year 2, but he's definitely a quarterback that projects to have a good career.
Jake in Colorado, doesn't want to see the NFL expand the regular season to 18 games, but he suggests giving each team two more bye weeks to stretch out the season and increase television revenue. Even adding one bye week creates problems. First, it pushes the Super Bowl back a week into February. And second, it'd dilute the product. Just look at the weeks in which six teams are on byes. There aren't enough good games to fill out the Sunday schedule for Fox and CBS. If the games aren't good, ratings decrease.
Jack in Estero, Florida, wonders how we could expect Tom Brady to notice the balls in the AFC Championship game were deflated if the official handling them every play couldn't tell? The official is preoccupied with putting the ball in play. Quarterbacks should know whether a ball is properly inflated because they have been handling footballs their entire lives.
Matt in Richmond, Virginia, is still optimistic about the 49ers. He knows the 49ers' defense won't be as dominant but thinks it should still be a top-12 unit. I agree. He also thinks the additions of Reggie Bush and Torrey Smith should add points to the offense. I'm a little less confident in that. Losing Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati hurts the offensive line.