Mike Tomlin has made two of the three worst fourth-down decisions this season. Earlier this year, he lost in overtime against Baltimore when he lost faith in his kicker and elected to go for it when the numbers strongly favored the field goal attempt. Today, he erred in the more conventional way by kicking a field goal when he should have gone for it.
Let's look at the numbers.
The Steelers were down by five with 3:02 to play in the game in Seattle, and his team faced a fourth-and-goal from the Seahawks' 3-yard line. If they kick a field goal to make it 32-30 in favor of the Seahawks, they have a 25.4 percent chance to win. Going for it increases their win probability to 35 percent. In a nutshell, Tomlin's decision cost the Steelers nearly 10 percent in win probability. That's a big swing, essentially losing a third of your win probability with one call.
A possible injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, as some have suggested, still doesn't mean the field goal made much sense. Pittsburgh would have had a better shot at winning by converting a single 3-yard play with backup Landry Jones. Remember, even if they don't score a touchdown, Seattle gets the ball back inside their 10-yard line. And again, if Big Ben is hurt, you're still asking Jones to lead a desperation field goal drive requiring several successful plays.
The odd part of this is Tomlin can't be accused of fearing what some might call "risky" decisions. Toward the end of the second quarter today, he chose to go for two rather than kick an extra point when up by two points. This is unorthodox to say the least. The numbers indicate a team would only want to forego the extra point attempt if they believed they had better than a 55 percent chance of success, while the league average is under 48 percent.
Tomlin might be making the wrong calls, but it's not because he's timid.