With the NFL season finally here, we have individual team previews at ESPN Chalk for all 32 teams. I give my overall assessment of each team's strengths and weaknesses heading into the season, including my take on how each team will perform against the spread and if it is a good over/under play. I also give my take on each team's future-book odds, including Super Bowl futures and odds to win the division or conference, if I think that's a better bet. Plus, I give my take on each team's over/under season win total.
Here are all 16 teams in the AFC.
Odds are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday, Sept. 1. "FPI Projection" is the number of wins from ESPN's Football Power Index. "MLE" is the money-line estimate using the CG Technology Weeks 1-16 lines. "W/L/T" is the record using the same method. (Note: Each Week 17 game is set as a pick 'em. Also, CG Technology closed these lines at the start of the preseason, so I've made adjustments for major injuries.)
AFC betting previews | NFC | Super Bowl bets
AFC East
New England Patriots
Super Bowl odds: 6-1 (opened 8-1)
Over/under season win total: 10.5 (O -120/U EVEN)
FPI Projection: 9.9 | MLE: 10.5 | W/L/T: 13-2-1
Overview: The Patriots will play their first four games without Tom Brady, but they're still the favorite to win the Super Bowl and have the highest season win total at 10.5 (along with the Packers, Seahawks, Panthers and Steelers). New England just continues to find players via trade or the waiver wire to fit into its system. Jimmy Garoppolo, who was going to start the first four games last year before Brady's original Deflategate suspension was overturned, takes over but will be an underdog in only the opener at Arizona. If the Patriots knock off the Cardinals, they might go 4-0 or at least 3-1 before Brady returns. Even if they lose the opener, they should be at least 2-2 and possibly 3-1. As great as the Patriots are, they do sometimes just squeak out wins and were a mediocre 7-6-3 last season ATS, so they can be faded on occasion.