The NFL has become more and more pass heavy in recent years. Although this obviously increases the value of elite quarterbacks, it has also increased the importance of the players who try to harass them. Although the 2017 NFL draft appears to be an unusually strong draft as a whole, it lacks an elite prospect at the quarterback position. Accordingly, all eyes have turned to Myles Garrett, the 2017 NFL draft's top edge rusher prospect, who many believe will be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. The question is: Will he measure up?
One way to answer that question is Football Outsiders' model for projecting edge rushers: SackSEER.
SackSEER projections are based on a statistical analysis of the factors that have historically correlated to success as an NFL edge rusher. SackSEER has predicted success for many current stars, such as Von Miller, Khalil Mack and Justin Houston, while also identifying several high-profile busts at the edge rusher position, including Dion Jordan, Marcus Smith and Jarvis Jones. SackSEER had its fair share of misses as well, but it nevertheless provides a good starting point for discussing the likelihood that a pass-rushing prospect will collect high sack numbers at the NFL level.
For more detail on how SackSEER works, check out the full detail at the bottom of the article.
What follows is a ranking of the top edge rusher prospects for 2017 according to our model, as well as one fairly highly regarded prospect the model thinks is likely to be a bust: