Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff Writer 9y

Best NFL season win total bets

NFL, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins

LAS VEGAS -- The NFL regular-season schedule has been released, so we're sure to hear a lot more people talking about over/under season win totals.

But in the continuing trend of sports books posting these types of odds earlier and earlier, this bet has already been available for two whole months at the CG Technology sports books (formerly Cantor Gaming) here in Vegas. Two years ago, the Atlantis in Reno, Nevada, was the first to post NFL over/under season win totals. Last year, CG Technology beat them by posting its numbers on March 7 and then blew away its own record this year by posting its openers on Feb. 13, less than two weeks after Super Bowl XLIX.

"We've made a concerted effort to try and get more things up first," said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology's race & sports books. "Vegas used to always be first, but we've see offshore books getting publicity for being first and we want to bring that back to Vegas.

"CG Analytics is another arm of our company; it's the old Las Vegas Sports Consultants. They create opening lines for all events, and they created the over/under's for the coming NFL season. We then compared them to what our staff came up with and adjusted based on what our customers were likely to do."

Simbal said some of the hardest numbers to set were for Philadelphia (all the player movement), San Francisco (going from Super Bowl contender to 8-8 also-ran, and then losing coach Jim Harbaugh) and Denver (new coaching staff, Peyton Manning's age, etc.). Simbal said that most of the money bet so far has come from fans of teams just betting the overs, especially on Indianapolis, Minnesota, Green Bay, the NY Giants and Arizona. Only two win totals have moved from CG Technology's opening numbers: Indianapolis from 9.5 to 10 wins and San Francisco from 8.5 to 8.

"To show how it's been sharp money on the 49ers under while it's been public money on the Colts," Simbal said, "our average bet on the 49ers' under was $200 to $250 while our average bet on the Colts over was $30."

But we're sure to see more movement as more books post their numbers. 

I'm going to go through all 32 teams and give my thoughts on each. While I'll mark my best bets with an asterisk (*) and own my record, this exercise is mostly done to start the conversation. I'm not wagering on a lot of my best bets now, but using this as a guide for when I see other books posting numbers to try to find a better price. If the rest of the books post the same numbers, I'll live with my picks.

Note: Teams are grouped by division and in order of each team's projected wins. CG Technology win totals are as of Tuesday, April 21, 2015. 


AFC East

New England Patriots

2014 record: 12-4 (O/U: 10.5)
2015 O/U: 10.5 (over minus-150/under plus-120)

^ Back to Top ^