NCAAF teams
Brian Fremeau, ESPN Insider 10y

Handicapping the SEC title race

Insider College Football, Georgia Bulldogs, Alabama Crimson Tide, Auburn Tigers, LSU Tigers, Texas A&M Aggies, Ole Miss Rebels, Missouri Tigers

There are so many contenders in the SEC, it looks more and more likely that the conference could get left out of the College Football Playoff. Outrageous, perhaps, but not unfathomable.

Through the first two weeks of the season, we don't know enough about the selection committee's priorities or whether the performances on the books so far are significant indicators of how the rest of the season will play out. But we project that half of the SEC teams could position themselves to be part of the playoff mix in December ---seven teams are currently ranked among the top 15 in our opponent-adjusted drive efficiency ratings.

But there is a lot of football left to be played, including 13 conference games among those seven contenders. And escaping the regular season with fewer than two losses will be a big challenge for pretty much everyone in the SEC.

Our updated FEI projections indicate that there is only a 29 percent chance that any team will emerge from the SEC with a perfect regular-season record, and there is a 14 percent chance that none will finish better than 10-2. Combine that with what would likely be a relative toss-up in the SEC championship game, and there is a good chance that the eventual conference winner will have at least two marks in the loss column.

The top SEC teams likely will have strong schedule-strength arguments when the committee begins its deliberations, but the top contenders in the other Power 5 conferences (including the Big Ten) are more likely to have better records. Below, we run down the obstacles that lie ahead in the SEC pecking order for best overall regular-season record.


Georgia Bulldogs

Likelihood of finishing 11-1 or 12-0: 42 percent
Most likely record: 10-2 (34 percent)

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