Major upsets have shaken up the polls throughout the first month of the season, but the most likely contenders for the College Football Playoff have held their ground. The Florida State Seminoles, Alabama Crimson Tide, Oklahoma Sooners and Oregon Ducks remain unbeaten and are the consensus top four teams heading into Week 5.
In all, there are 25 undefeated teams left, a group that has combined to dominate weak opponents, escape near-upset bids and record signature wins along the way. But, of course, this group will continue to shrink. There are 35 regular-season matchups left to be played between currently undefeated teams, including two head-to-head battles this week: UCLA plays at Arizona State on Thursday night, while Florida State plays at NC State on Saturday.
So which teams have the easiest and toughest roads to 12-0? Our full-season schedule strength ratings tell part of the story, but some teams already have passed their biggest tests, while others have major challenges on the horizon.
What do all of them have in common? No team currently projects to have a better than 50 percent chance of remaining undefeated. We break down the five toughest and five easiest schedules to watch.
Toughest remaining schedules for undefeated teams
No. 2 remaining strength of schedule (SOS), No. 5 overall SOS
0.5 percent likelihood to go undefeated
The Utes didn't allow a red zone trip or an offensive touchdown in their win over Michigan last weekend, and they lead the nation in fewest points allowed per non-garbage drive (0.4) through the first four weeks of the year. Defensive efficiency will keep them competitive in the Pac-12, but a particularly nasty stretch starting in late October (USC, Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford and Arizona in a five-week stretch) will present too many obstacles to an undefeated campaign.
No. 3 remaining SOS, No. 2 overall SOS
4.3 percent likelihood to go undefeated