Each of the four teams that will play in the inaugural College Football Playoff this year had an outstanding 2014 season, which was no surprise considering their recent success. Over the past four years, only four major conference programs have an overall FBS winning percentage of at least 80 percent: Alabama (44-5, .898), Oregon (43-6, .878), Florida State (43-6, .878) and Ohio State (41-10, .804).
Our annual Football Outsiders projections are based in part on program success, four-year and five-year measures of efficiency that our research indicates has a strong correlation with next-year success. The Crimson Tide, Ducks, Seminoles and Buckeyes will certainly carry strong program ratings into next season, but which programs are on the doorstep?
The four programs we identified have three common traits. They each have a four-year FBS winning percentage of at least 70 percent, they each improved their program rating from last season to this season, and they each have a higher program rating today than they did four years ago. If multiple years of success are a key to playoff contention, these four programs -- two in the Big 12 -- are well-positioned to take the next step.
Georgia Bulldogs
35-14 (.714) four-year FBS record
No. 7 program rating (up from No. 12 four years ago)
The Bulldogs had a peculiar year in terms of efficiency versus results. Georgia crushed Missouri by 34 points on the road but finished one game behind the Tigers in the SEC East standings with head-scratching losses to middle-of-the-road conference foes South Carolina and Florida. They ended the year with an overtime loss to nonconference rival Georgia Tech after taking a 24-21 lead with only 18 seconds left in regulation. Georgia ranked eighth nationally in overall game efficiency but every other team ranked that highly finished the year with two or fewer losses.
The good news is that the Bulldogs finished the year with their best ranking in four years in a number of metrics.