John Gasaway, ESPN Insider 9y

Which first-year coaches can win now?

Insider Men's College Basketball, Iowa State Cyclones, Florida Gators, Texas Longhorns, Arizona State Sun Devils, Tennessee Volunteers, Mississippi State Bulldogs, Alabama Crimson Tide, DePaul Blue Demons, St. John's Red Storm

Being a first-year coach in a major conference is very, very difficult. Ask Fred Hoiberg.

The new head coach of the Chicago Bulls might fairly be said to be pre-eminent in his field at the moment, but in his first season at the helm at Iowa State in 2010-11 he went just 3-13 in the Big 12. In fact over the past five seasons, first-year head coaches have won just 34 percent of their league games in the nation's top six conferences (the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC).

Granted, there are exceptions to that rule. Frank Haith memorably guided a veteran Missouri team to a 30-5 record in his first campaign as the head man in Columbia in 2011-12, and just last season Chris Holtmann led Butler to a surprisingly strong 12-6 finish in Big East play. Still, the key phrase there is "exceptions to the rule." Of the last 50 seasons recorded by rookie head coaches in the major conferences, 37 of those introductory campaigns netted a below-.500 record in league play.

Keep these numbers in mind as you look at this season's crop of first-year coaches. Here are my rankings of this season's chances of success (and not a given coach's overall ability) for the new guys in the major conferences, from the brightest 2015-16 forecast to the darkest:

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