Nick Castellanos has been hot offensively to start the season, but there are signs that it might not last. His .333 batting average is buoyed by a .440 batting average on balls in play, which is more than 80 points higher than his career mark and he can be expected to regress. Baseball Info Solutions' (BIS) Defense-Independent Batting Statistics (DIBS) suggest that Castellanos has had 3.9 hits more than expected based on the quality of his batted ball contact. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate has increased to a career-high 28 percent and his walk rate has decreased to a career-low 4 percent. If those fortunate bounces stop going Castellanos' way, he will likely return to his career standard of decent but not outstanding offense.
If Castellanos is only a decent hitter, then his defense becomes a problem. In fewer than 200 innings this season, he has already cost the Tigers six runs at third base according to Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), BIS' comprehensive measurement of player defense. Only David Wright (-7 at third base) and Carlos Correa (-7 at shortstop) have been worse. Meanwhile, this sort of bleak pace is not new for Castellanos. Since his rookie season in 2014, he has been far and away the worst defender at a single position in baseball, having cost his team 15 more runs than the next-worst defender (Dexter Fowler) has cost his team at his position.