Each August, the NBA offseason quiets down and we begin to take stock of the flurry of activity that marks every summer. That process is kicked off by ESPN's Summer Forecast, an aggregation of judgment from the various branches of our NBA coverage. It's the baseline consensus opinion that will inform how we react to the season ahead. The forecast does pretty well, too. (Here are last year's East and West picks.) It's not perfect, and no one would want it to be. If sports were that predictable, we'd lose interest fast. We project to establish a baseline of expectation so we know when to be surprised.
Few NBA teams veer up and down the standings like they do in the NFL from one season to next, unless they've made a home run acquisition or two like this year's Cavaliers, or suffered a season-debilitating injury, like the Pacers. But there are always surprises. Last year's summer prognostications said Toronto and Charlotte would combine to win 59 games. The Raptors set a franchise record for wins, and both teams made the playoffs. In the West, the Phoenix Suns were pegged for 22 wins, yet won 48 and contended in the rugged West into the season's final day. Portland, which was picked to finish out of the playoffs, not only earned their way in but advanced to the second round.
This year's summer forecast (East and West) will again be uncannily prescient, yet paradoxically imperfect. Of the 14 teams predicted to finish out of the playoffs, at least a couple will find themselves continuing to play after the regular season ends. Because those teams by definition will be defying what we currently know about them objectively, it's hard to say who they'll be -- precisely why they'll be surprise teams.
Here's a look at three teams I see as good candidates to outperform their baseline expectations in 2014-15 and potentially make the playoffs.