Each week throughout the season, we will break down ESPN's NFL Power Rankings from the perspective of ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to determine which teams are ranked too high, which too low, and why.
As a reminder, the ultimate goal of the NFL FPI is to measure team strength and project performance. Each season, there are some teams that are better than their records suggest and others that are overrated based on their total of wins. This is often a result of a lot of close wins/losses, luck or schedule. Because FPI looks at a team's per-play efficiency rather than its win total, it can uncover the teams that are most overrated and underrated and project which teams will be strongest.
For more on FPI and how it's calculated, please read this explainer. For FPI's complete rankings, click here.
Overrated teams
FPI ranking: 19
Power Rankings rank: 11
Reason they're overrated: Overreaction to one big win.
The Rams rose eight spots from 19th to 11th in the ESPN.com Power Rankings after their 24-22 win at Arizona. Based on opponent strength and game site, the case can be made that was the most impressive win of the season, but should it be enough to vault the Rams into the top 12? The main component of FPI holding back the Rams is their offense. Clearly St. Louis is improved with Todd Gurley running the ball (146 yards, 7.7 yards per carry against Arizona), but FPI still needs to see one or two more weeks of consistent offensive play with Gurley healthy to move the Rams up in its offensive projections.