I don't like throwing out too many absolutes during draft season, but as the calendar flipped to 2016, I was pretty sure of one thing: Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith would be a top-five pick in the upcoming NFL draft (assuming he chose to leave school early). But that changed on Jan. 1, when Smith suffered a devastating knee injury in his final college game. Since then, there has been plenty of speculation about the extent of his injury, and Monday's news confirmed Smith is not expected to play in 2016 and some teams have questions whether he will ever play again.
ESPN's Darren Rovell reported that Smith could collect on some of his $5 million loss-of-value insurance policy if he fell out of the first round. Unfortunately, that appears to be all but a certainty. He's a consensus top-five talent, but in speaking to people in the league, it seems like the highest Smith could go would be Day 3. With an injury of this nature, each team's medical policy will dictate whether Smith makes it on the final draft board. And if he does, it'll be up to the GM or ultimate decision-maker to measure risk versus reward.
While it's easy to understand why teams would shy away from making a high-priced draft investment in Smith, I do think it's important to have some perspective. After watching his film, I can definitively say Smith would have been the No. 1 overall player on my board had he walked off the field healthy on Jan. 1.
Here are the three biggest reasons why.