In some of the boldest NFL moves from 2015, the Denver Broncos fired four-time division-winning coach John Fox, pushed Peyton Manning into a foreign offense and then brought Manning off the bench for the playoffs, jettisoning the heir to his quarterback throne. Now, for an encore, the Broncos will defend their Super Bowl title with Mark Sanchez and rookie Paxton Lynch as their quarterbacks.
Stats say the Broncos could be no worse on offense in 2016, a reflection of how low the bar was set last season, when Manning finished with 11 touchdown passes and 18 interceptions in 12 starts, counting playoffs. Denver could realistically improve on offense if its line trends toward average following a particularly rough season. But to hear seasoned NFL coaches tell it, the Broncos' new quarterback room threatens to drag down the team more than numbers would suggest, making Denver more vulnerable than at any point since John Elway's first year as general manager, when Tim Tebow was the starting quarterback and the team finished 8-8.
"Me telling you they are not going to repeat is not a huge deal," one NFL coach said. "I am telling you it is going to be a complete strain."
Elway and the Broncos have often gotten the last laugh in these discussions. They can do it again eventually if Lynch develops into the quarterback they think he can become down the line. Can they contend in the meantime?
"No," a veteran coordinator said. "They will win maybe 10 games, and they will get beat in the playoffs as soon as they have to throw the ball to win."
That was supposed to happen last season, but the Denver defense would not allow it. The Broncos gave up 17.9 points per game, counting playoffs. Manning had a 10-2 starting record despite throwing those 18 picks in his dozen starts. That low statistical bar is where the hope for Denver lies in 2016.
Sanchez as the 2015 Peyton
The chart below compares Manning's stats from his 12 starts last season to the 12 most recent starts for Sanchez, which date to late in the 2013 season with Philadelphia.