Choosing the four teams for the College Football Playoff is one of the most subjective, ambiguous processes of determining a national champion in all of college sports.
That is, unless you follow the selection committee's 11 commandments.
Believe it or not, there's a method to the madness. There is protocol to be followed, and now there is two years of data to be analyzed. You want in, TCU? Michigan? LSU? Pay attention.
The committee says thou shalt ...
1. Play a challenging schedule
The committee wants to know whom you beat. It's that simple. One of the biggest justifications for their weekly rankings has been wins over top-25 opponents and wins against teams with records of .500 or better. It's why the Big Ten no longer schedules FCS teams and has gone to a nine-game league format. It's why Week 1 features four matchups between two ranked teams. Teams aren't penalized for a "good loss" (see: Notre Dame at Clemson last year) but also aren't rewarded for FCS wins (looking at you, North Carolina).
"One of the top criteria we have in our rankings is strength of schedule. We look at all of those things. I know when we're comparing schools or looking at schools, we throw it right up on the screen: who'd they play, what their opponents' records were. That's very important -- your quality wins." -- CFP committee member Barry Alvarez
2. Win your conference
Nowhere does it say specifically teams have to win a conference championship game (Oklahoma didn't need one last year), but there is heavy weight given to that so-called "13th data point," which was the very reason Ohio State finished in the top four in 2014. The Buckeyes' romp of Wisconsin was exactly what it needed to sneak into the top four for the first time all season, pushing the Big 12 out. A conference title is used to help the committee members choose between comparable teams. It's why Michigan State bumped Iowa out of the top four last year and why it jumped Oklahoma in the final ranking.
"I think that win over that highly ranked team added to the rest of their body of work caused Michigan State to be ranked ahead of Oklahoma." -- Former committee chairman Jeff Long on Dec. 6, 2015
3. Lose early, not late
Nobody within the CFP will concede this publicly, but by the nature of the sport, a November loss is far more damaging than one in September. Ask the Buckeyes, who suffered a devastating Nov. 21 loss to Michigan State last year, or Stanford, which won the Pac-12 but couldn't overcome that Nov. 14 home loss to Oregon. Or Notre Dame, which was eliminated with a Nov. 28 loss to Stanford.
4. Win the head-to-head debate
See: TCU vs. Baylor. For committee members who wrestled with which Big 12 co-champ was better in 2014, the protocol helped guide them, as it says that head-to-head results should be used to help rank comparable teams. That could come into play this year with teams like Florida State and Clemson or LSU and Alabama.
"TCU went behind Baylor because I think people when they voted took into account finally the head-to-head. People would say why don't you take the head-to-head during the season? Because at that point, there are games that are being played, and one team's schedule might be significantly more challenging than another team's schedule, but once you've been through playing the whole conference slate and you're on even footing, and that's when you have to get it right." -- Former committee member Mike Tranghese
5. Pass the eye test
OK, so there's a wee bit of subjectivity in this system, but if you don't impress the five former coaches in the room, odds are the rest of the committee isn't impressed, either. Alabama lost at home to Ole Miss last year but was still one of the committee's top four teams based in large part on its strength of schedule (see No. 1 on this list) and simply how good it looked.
6. Don't assume undefeated means No. 1
Undefeated Florida State from 2014 can attest to this, along with Ohio State from 2015. The Seminoles were undefeated in the first year of the playoff, were never ranked No. 1 and were consistently ranked as low as No. 3. In Week 11 last year, a one-loss Alabama team jumped to No. 2 over undefeated Ohio State.
"There is debate about that. There's certainly those who view a team coming from behind and winning as a sign of a strong team, and there's others who might believe that they're a good enough team, they should have been in front or more in control of the game as they progressed." -- Long on FSU, Nov. 25, 2014
7. Find a Heisman-caliber QB (unless you're Alabama)
Almost every team that has been in the CFP so far has had an elite quarterback. Oregon QB Marcus Mariota? Heisman winner. Florida State QB Jameis Winston? Heisman winner. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson? He'll win it this year. Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook and Ohio State QBs Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett were household names, too. Somehow, Alabama continues to be the exception to this rule.
8. Don't write anyone off in Week 1 (except Houston)
Admit it. You eliminated Ohio State from the playoff after it lost at home to Virginia Tech in 2014. How about Stanford after it lost to Northwestern last year? It will be tempting to toss somebody out in Week 1 with so many high-profile games, but don't do it. The only deal-breaker is if Houston loses to OU, which would likely eliminate the Group of 5's best hope at an undefeated top-four team. Everyone else will be forgiven.
"You can recover. Teams change from the beginning of the year to the end of year." -- Alvarez
9. Two teams from the same conference can be in the top four
The committee has the freedom to put LSU and Alabama in together or Clemson and Florida State in together. In the first ranking of 2014, the committee put three teams in the top four from the SEC West. Their job is to determine the four best teams. Period. A team that doesn't win a league title, though, has to be "unequivocally" one of the four best and carries a greater burden to unseat a league champ. The committee hasn't had to tackle that debate yet.
"Our protocol clearly says there can be more than one team from a conference in the final four, so that's definitely a possibility," -- Long on Dec. 1, 2015
10. Don't panic over injuries
Ohio State managed to win a national title with its third-string quarterback. Notre Dame kept its playoff hopes alive with DeShone Kizer after Malik Zaire was injured. The committee doesn't eliminate teams because of injuries. It waits to see how those teams perform without the starter. If it still looks like a top-four team, it will be ranked as such.
"One notable injury this week to Ohio State's quarterback, J.T. Barrett, did not affect the week's rankings. The committee will evaluate the Buckeyes without him in the Big Ten championship game this weekend. -- Long, Dec. 2, 2014
11. Don't get comfortable until the final ranking is revealed
Just ask TCU, which dropped from No. 3 to No. 6 in the final ranking of 2014.
"I don't really care if I get it right during the year. I'm not worried about it. I'm only worried about getting it right the last week of the year. If we get every week wrong but we get it right at the end of the year, then we get it right." -- Tranghese