There appears to be a caveat in the College Football Playoff selection committee's protocol that could keep Ohio State in the top four even if Penn State -- which beat the Buckeyes -- goes on to win the Big Ten.
According to the protocol, "strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and championships won must be specifically applied as tie-breakers between teams that look similar."
Here's the catch: As of right now, the committee doesn't think No. 2 Ohio State and No. 7 Penn State "look similar."
"Does the selection committee see a small margin of separation this week between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 7 Penn State? We do not," selection committee chair Kirby Hocutt told reporters on Tuesday evening.
The committee already has shown it thinks the Buckeyes are a better team by keeping them ranked ahead of Penn State in spite of the Nittany Lions' 24-21 win over Ohio State on Oct. 22, but because Penn State also lost to Pitt, their résumés aren't comparable.
"Head-to-head is a factor," Hocutt said, "but it's one among many others as we continue to go further along in the season and in our evaluation of teams."
The question is if Penn State can close that gap by winning the Big Ten's East Division this weekend and then the Big Ten title on Dec. 3. In order for Penn State to win the division, the Nittany Lions have to beat Michigan State on Saturday AND Michigan has to lose to Ohio State. In 2014, TCU dropped from No. 3 to No. 6 in the final ranking because it lost the head-to-head result to Baylor.
"This week the committee members didn't put Penn State ahead of Ohio State," CFP Executive Director Bill Hancock said. " So obviously the head-to-head was not the sole deciding factor in the case of those teams this week. As usual, the committee is making no statement about the future."
The committee's rankings are a weekly snapshot of each team's "body of work" to that point, so there's still the possibility that there would be committee members in the room who would value Penn State's conference championship and head-to-head win more than Ohio State's impressive résumé, which would include four wins against CFP top-25 opponents.
"It's up to each individual selection committee member as to how they prioritize those measurements," Hocutt said.
It could all be a moot point if that scenario doesn't unfold, but it also would be a situation the committee hasn't had to deal with yet, as there has not been a team worth considering that didn't win a conference title. If Ohio State wins Saturday but doesn't win the East, it would still have road wins against No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 6 Wisconsin, and home wins against No. 16 Nebraska and then No. 3 Michigan. It's possible no other team in the country could rival that résumé, save for an undefeated Alabama.
The committee's job is to pick the four best teams -- not the four most deserving -- but it's one of this system's greatest debates. A Big Ten champ in Penn State would no doubt be deserving.
But it is really one of the four best?
"Yes, that's what we do for hours and hours and hours over the course of two days each week is we focus on who is the best college football team, and as we analyze those teams and their performances, obviously we're watching, we're looking at the film if we're not watching the games live, and then we're also studying the statistics and analyzing all the data in front of us," Hocutt said. "You know, we always have a focus on who are the best football teams up to this point in the season."