Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher has a question for the 13 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee: Can a "great" two-loss team that played a "phenomenal schedule" finish in the top four ahead of a one-loss team that played a weaker schedule?
"Great" as in the loser of the Florida State-Alabama game.
"Are they willing to make that jump?" Fisher asked of the committee. "That will be the interesting scenario to me if it ever happens."
It has not happened yet in the three years of the CFP, but if it does, the third-ranked Seminoles' game against No. 1 Alabama on Sept. 2 (ABC & WatchESPN, 8 p.m. ET) could be the catalyst for it, along with several other unprecedented scenarios. Don't eliminate the loser, and don't crown the winner -- but consider the debates that would ensue if it's a close game and both teams actually live up to the hype of their preseason rankings through late November.
"There are some interesting scenarios that are going to come up, but if you want these big opening games," Fisher said, "are you going to reward them if it doesn't turn out right and it's still a very competitive football game, making it worthwhile for you to do it?"
Both Fisher and Alabama coach Nick Saban enter Week 1's headliner game at the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta knowing it's a gamble for their chances at the CFP.
"If we lose two games this year and still win the SEC and don't get in the playoff, I understand how it works," Saban said. "There will probably be more teams that lost one game or no games, who will have a better opportunity to get in than we will. I'm not saying I'm going to be happy about that, but I understand that. I get that."
He also understands the big-picture benefits of opening against an elite team.
"I would rather play Florida State," Saban said. "Not just Florida State, but a good team in the beginning of the season because I think it does a lot for your team and your team's chances of being successful. First of all, you have a better offseason when the players have a big challenge in the first game. It really tells you regardless of the result where your team is, legitimately. And if you play a really weak team and you win the game 45-7, you still don't really know for sure if your team is really good or not good."
We thought Florida State was really good last year -- until it got drubbed by Louisville 63-20. This year, there's no denying what will be revealed in Week 1.
"One of us gets a huge leg [ahead]," Fisher said, "and the other almost has to be perfect the rest of the year."
Almost.
Consider these three scenarios that could each be triggered by the Florida State-Alabama result:
1. The ACC becomes the first conference to get two teams into the CFP
This assumes: FSU beats Bama. Clemson beats FSU and Auburn and wins the ACC. The Seminoles' and Tigers' ranked opponents finish the season ranked.
How it happens: With two preseason top-five teams in No. 3 Florida State and No. 5 Clemson, and both teams playing an aggressive schedule to impress the selection committee, the ACC looks to have the most realistic shot of the Power 5 conferences -- but only if Florida State beats Alabama and Clemson beats Auburn.
Not only would FSU have arguably the best nonconference win of the season, it would also have racked up wins against No. 18 Miami, No. 16 Louisville and No. 17 Florida. Clemson could certainly finish in the top four with wins over No. 12 Auburn, No. 16 Louisville, No. 21 Virginia Tech and No. 3 Florida State. Don't be surprised to see NC State eventually pop into the committee's rankings as well.
If Clemson doesn't beat Auburn, or falters somewhere else, but still beats FSU and still wins the ACC, it wouldn't be far-fetched to see the committee do what it did with Ohio State and Penn State last year, and pick FSU over Clemson in spite of the head-to-head result and conference title.
2. A two-loss team gets into the CFP
This assumes: FSU beats Bama, and Alabama loses one close SEC game but still wins the league.
How it happens: It's called clout. Saban has some, and Alabama, by virtue of its schedule and reputation, likely has the most realistic chance of becoming the first two-loss CFP semifinalist. That's not to say Florida State couldn't do it. What if the Noles' only two losses were to Alabama and Florida and they won the ACC? It would depend on what happens throughout the rest of the Power 5 conferences. Any two-loss conference champion would be measured against its one-loss or undefeated peers, and that's where Fisher's question about scheduling up comes into play.
If Alabama doesn't beat Florida State, it would still need quality wins on its résumé to impress the committee, so No. 25 Tennessee, No. 13 LSU and No. 12 Auburn need to stay ranked or other opponents need to crack the committee's top 25. As of now, after the Florida State game, Alabama doesn't play another ranked opponent until Oct. 21 vs. Tennessee.
3. This is the first time we see a rematch of a regular-season game in the CFP
This assumes: Alabama beats FSU, and Florida State runs the table and wins the ACC.
How it happens: If Alabama beats Florida State and goes on to win the SEC, even with one loss, it could have a top-five win on its résumé and would be a no-brainer for the selection committee. FSU would easily overcome the season-opening loss with wins against No. 18 Miami, No. 16 Louisville, at No. 5 Clemson and at No. 17 Florida, plus another win against a ranked opponent in the ACC title game. Two road wins against ranked opponents in November would all but clinch a spot in the top four for FSU. Atlanta to Atlanta, anyone?