With free agency underway, the offseason is about to pick up steam. What are the big questions facing all 30 teams? We've already covered the AL East, NL East and AL Central and now we're moving on to the National League Central.
How do the Cubs set up their outfield?
2016 record: 103-58
Given the free-agent status of closer Aroldis Chapman, many believe the big offseason puzzle for the Chicago Cubs to solve will be their bullpen. But there isn't likely going to be much headline news in that regard. If Chapman gets a big, multiyear offer, he's probably gone, and the Cubs will augment their holdovers with some low-cost, decent-upside arms. Besides, they can win 100 games again with an average bullpen, all while shaping the relief staff for the 2017 playoffs on the fly.
The more pressing question centers around Dexter Fowler's free agency. Fowler was an essential cog in the title run and the Cubs don't have an obvious replacement for a leadoff hitter. Yet overall, they can turn Fowler's defensive domain in center field over to Albert Almora. The big question: Is he ready for that gig offensively? Almora's glove is good to go, and the Cubs thought highly enough of his overall game to keep him on the postseason roster.
But what if they don't think Almora's bat plays as an everyday guy just yet? Fowler will be 31 by Opening Day and this is likely his last shot at a big, multiyear deal. Knowing that Almora is waiting in the wings, the Cubs are unlikely to commit three or four years to a guy whose numbers are likely to regress. If the market again is a chilly one for Fowler, then maybe the Cubs can scoop him up late in the process as they did last year.
Meanwhile, you've got Kyle Schwarber returning to full-time duty, possibly as a catcher/corner outfielder, and Jason Heyward, who can do spot duty in center and is ripe for an offensive regression in a good way. And don't forget about powerhouse corner outfielder Jorge Soler, jack-of-all-trades Ben Zobrist and the solid Matt Szczur. Soler, of course, may turn out to be the Cubs' best trade piece -- if not this winter, then possibly during next July's search for bullpen help.
Losing Fowler's leadoff on-base ability would be a blow. But the Cubs know that manager Joe Maddon can get creative with his lineup choices, and they have a number of players whose improvement seems inevitable. So are the in-house holdovers enough? If not, is there a short-term option on the free-agent market that makes sense, like Cubs nemesis Rajai Davis? -- Bradford Doolittle
Can the Cardinals close the gap on the Cubs?
2016 record: 86-76
The St. Louis Cardinals feel like they are at their best when they specialize in run prevention, which is why the team's very style irked some people in management positions last season. Now, their intention is to fix what ailed the team's pitching by focusing on the fielding that failed to support it.
What set the world champion Cubs apart in the Central wasn't their lineup. The Cardinals scored nearly as many runs, finishing third in the NL in scoring. While the Cubs shut down other teams' offenses with an athletic young infield and sound outfielders, the Cardinals often fueled big innings with plays not made. Fangraphs ranked the Cubs first in defense and the Cardinals 24th.
General manager John Mozeliak will look to be aggressive in trade talks to acquire a center fielder so he can shift Randal Grichuk to left field. If that doesn't pan out, or even if it does, he also figures to have some conversations about acquiring a shortstop so Aledmys Diaz can move to second base. The Angels happen to have the best center fielder, if not player, in the game in Mike Trout and a brilliant-fielding shortstop in Andrelton Simmons, so Mozeliak figures at least to have a conversation or two with GM Billy Eppler to find out the asking price -- if there is one -- for either player. The Cardinals are less likely to fix their defense via free agency, though they could have some interest in Dexter Fowler if he can be signed on a relatively short-term deal.
Depending how talks go, the Cardinals could have a very different look and feel next spring, and that is by design. -- Mark Saxon
What do the Pirates do with Andrew McCutchen?
2016 record: 78-83
The Pittsburgh Pirates' rotation fell from a 3.53 ERA in 2015, fifth in the NL, to 4.67, 11th in the NL, so they need a healthy Gerrit Cole and big gains from Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow to get back into the playoff race. But the offseason will revolve around McCutchen -- who is signed for two more years -- and whether the five-time All-Star will be in the Pittsburgh outfield in 2017.
At the minimum, he's probably played his last game in center field for the Pirates. He was charged with minus-28 defensive runs saved last season, the worst of any player at any position. He ranked second worst in ultimate zone rating (UZR), another rating system, so the metrics agree that he no longer has the range to play center. It's time for Starling Marte to take over.
The tougher decision: Was his .256/.336/.430 line just a bad season? Did he play through an injury? Is this the beginning of the decline? Top prospect Austin Meadows hit .266/.333/.536 between Double-A and Triple-A, although just .214 in 37 games at Triple-A. If he's deemed ready, that could put McCutchen on the trade market.
McCutchen's contract -- $14 million in 2017, $14.75 million team option for 2018 - isn't so prohibitive that the Pirates couldn't get a starting pitcher in return. But will teams view 2016 as an aberration or his new level? Don't expect the Pirates to get anything resembling an ace if they do trade him; there's just too much uncertainty here. Yes, trading a fan favorite would be painful, but the Pirates can't afford to be sentimental. They'll make the decision they deem best for the club. -- David Schoenfield
What do the Brewers do with Ryan Braun?
2016 record: 73-89
Braun had his best season since his suspension for performance-enhancing drugs in 2013, belting 30 homers in his age-32 season while posting a .903 OPS. It invites questions about whether he's an asset for a busily rebuilding Milwaukee Brewers franchise. While the Brew Crew's 73-win season was a nice surprise in the first full year on GM David Stearns' watch, it's going to be a few years before they can punch their way into the same weight class as the Cubs and Cardinals in the NL Central. So why keep Braun around for their next few seasons of aspirational mediocrity?
The problem is that the potential stumbling blocks to a Braun deal are daunting, demanding some extra creativity from the already very creative Stearns. Braun is due at least $80 million over the next four seasons, and $91 million over five if either party exercises a mutual 2021 option. To get the right kind of prospect back in a deal, the Brewers would have to eat a considerable chunk of that contract and make him less of a payroll hit for his new club. Then there's Braun's limited no-trade protection in which he can block deals to 24 teams. In 2016 the happy six-pack he could be peddled to comprised San Francisco, San Diego, both L.A. teams, Arizona and Miami. That's a list with just one DH-league team for a guy heading deeper into his 30s.
Working around all of that to free Stearns to deal with all 30 teams isn't impossible but would involve making it worth Braun's while to agree. And it takes two to tango -- does anyone want Braun that badly, given his checkered past? And do they have the prospects Stearns would want to add to an already-strong Brewers farm system? That's a lot of ifs to answer, but Braun's potential market value will never be higher than it is right now. -- Christina Kahrl
Will the Reds trade Joey Votto?
2016 record: 68-94
In a relatively weak free-agent market, Votto would almost automatically be the most valuable hitter available if the Reds shop him. But that's in present-day value, and Votto is going to be heading into his age-33 season next year. If ever they were going to try and trade him, there's no time like the present.
The challenge for GM Dick Williams is coming up with a deal that Votto would agree to given his full no-trade protection, essentially limiting the Reds to Votto's destinations of choice. So if Votto wants to go back to Canada and play for the Blue Jays (and a shot at contention), then it's on Williams to come up with a deal, one that also makes sense for Cincinnati. And even then, Votto is signed for $179 million through his age-39 season in 2023 -- does anybody want to make a trade for that big a hit on their payroll?
If a team wants Votto, they're going to have to be very close to winning it all and lacking a first baseman and have strong reasons to prefer trading for Votto over signing a shorter-term deal for someone like Edwin Encarnacion. That's all possible but far from easy to put together, and it might involve getting a relatively modest package of prospects while kicking in tens of millions of dollars. Is that even worth doing? The Reds already are stuck with a long-term rebuild, a tough sell in any market -- selling their fans on a Votto trade to boot might be mission impossible. -- Christina Kahrl