Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins posted a Total QBR over 60 just twice in his first six starts of the season, but he has delivered back-to-back 90-plus games in November. He surged up the leaderboard to sixth in the NFL by posting a personal season-best 94.1 Total QBR on Sunday against Green Bay.
If we look only at Weeks 7 through 11, Cousins jumps to third with an 83.5 during that time frame, trailing only Dak Prescott (87.5) and Tom Brady (84.2) and just ahead of Drew Brees (80.0).
So what has changed for Cousins?
Most importantly, he cut down on his turnovers. Cousins threw at least one interception in five of his first six games and fumbled three times. He was lucky enough not to lose any of them, but as we've brought up before, simply fumbling is a damaging play, even if recovered by the offense.
Since then, Cousins has thrown just one pick, and it wasn't a particularly damaging one. It came on a third-and-14 at the Redskins' 37-yard line with 2:33 left in the second quarter of an eventual tie against Cincinnati in London. The interception came 44 yards downfield -- in effect it was about as good as an average punt would be, with the Bengals taking over at their own 14.
Cousins did fumble three times against Detroit in Week 7 (losing one), but hasn't put the ball on the ground since, and all three of his fumble-free games ended with a Total QBR over 75.
Cousins has also taken advantage of favorable third-down situations, and that has helped fuel his QBR rise.
From Weeks 1 through 6, no team had a shorter average third-down distance than the Redskins, needing about 6.5 yards per third-down for a conversion. The problem was, Cousins and the offense weren't converting. Cousins had a 23.7 raw QBR on third downs early on, garnering just 23 first downs on 57 pass attempts (40.3 percent) while taking four sacks, throwing two interceptions and fumbling two times.
Since then, Washington has had slightly more advantageous third downs (6.4 yards needed for a first down), but Cousins has dramatically raised his QBR to 92.3 on those plays, third-highest in the league from Weeks 7 through 11.
The main driver (aside from avoiding the turnovers, as we've already covered) is converting those third downs into first downs. The Redskins as a team are converting 55.2 percent of their third downs since Week 7, including 54.5 percent of his pass attempts, third-highest in the league. These are all up sharply from Weeks 1 through 6, when the Redskins converted 37.7 percent of third downs (12th-best) and Cousins completed 40.4 percent of his pass attempts (14th).
So by cutting down on turnovers and greatly improving his efficiency on third downs, Cousins has been able pull the Redskins back into the thick of the playoff hunt. ESPN's Football Power Index currently gives the Redskins a 51.3 percent chance to make the playoffs.
A look at Cousins' progression this season:
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